daily prop · Houston, TX · Plains & South Central · settles Sun Oct 18

Houston runs hot-for-here: 90°F+ · Sun Oct 18

2¢

american +5305 · decimal 54.05

on the tape

90°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 90°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

nbm		25¢
eps		18¢
ndfd		14¢
icon		4¢
hres		1¢
wn2		0¢
aifs		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

68–69°F1¢

70–71°F7¢

72–73°F20¢

74–75°F32¢

76–77°F26¢

78–79°F11¢

80–81°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,304 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.693 vs climatology 8.864.

Receipts

prop id WP-KIAH-20261018-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-10-11T07:32:26+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape