KIAH / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 9.0¢Risks 4.50u

AIFSNO 91.0¢Risks 45.50u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.50u · AIFS −45.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:26+00:00	0.1%	32.8%	1.7%	48.1%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	0.1%	32.8%	1.7%	48.1%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	0.1%	32.8%	1.7%	48.1%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	0.1%	32.8%	1.7%	48.1%	—
2026-10-11T10:34:07+00:00	0.1%	32.8%	1.7%	48.1%	—
2026-10-11T11:20:07+00:00	0.1%	17.0%	0.1%	48.1%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:23+00:00	0.1%	17.0%	0.1%	48.1%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00	0.1%	17.0%	0.1%	48.1%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:52+00:00	0.9%	17.0%	0.1%	48.1%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00	0.9%	17.0%	0.1%	48.1%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:59+00:00	0.9%	16.2%	0.1%	48.1%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:20+00:00	0.9%	16.2%	0.1%	48.1%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	0.9%	16.2%	0.1%	48.1%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:03+00:00	0.9%	16.2%	0.2%	48.1%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	0.9%	16.2%	0.2%	48.1%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00	0.9%	16.2%	0.2%	48.1%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:33+00:00	3.0%	16.2%	0.2%	28.0%	22.9%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	3.0%	16.2%	0.2%	28.0%	22.9%
2026-10-11T21:13:54+00:00	3.0%	16.2%	0.2%	28.0%	22.9%
2026-10-11T21:59:01+00:00	3.0%	16.2%	0.2%	28.0%	22.9%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	3.0%	16.2%	0.2%	28.0%	22.9%
2026-10-11T23:29:36+00:00	3.0%	16.2%	1.2%	28.0%	23.0%
2026-10-12T00:14:45+00:00	3.0%	16.2%	1.2%	28.0%	23.0%
2026-10-12T01:00:15+00:00	3.0%	16.2%	1.2%	28.0%	23.0%
2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00	7.6%	16.2%	1.2%	28.0%	23.0%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	7.6%	16.2%	1.2%	28.0%	23.0%
2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00	7.6%	16.2%	1.2%	28.0%	23.0%
2026-10-12T04:01:47+00:00	7.6%	16.2%	1.2%	28.0%	23.0%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	7.6%	16.2%	1.2%	28.0%	23.0%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	7.6%	16.2%	1.1%	28.0%	23.0%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	7.6%	16.2%	1.1%	28.0%	23.0%
2026-10-12T07:02:35+00:00	7.6%	16.2%	1.1%	28.0%	23.0%
2026-10-12T07:48:45+00:00	1.0%	16.2%	1.1%	26.1%	12.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00	1.0%	16.2%	1.1%	26.1%	12.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	1.0%	16.2%	1.1%	26.1%	12.4%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	1.0%	16.2%	1.1%	26.1%	12.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	1.0%	16.2%	1.1%	26.1%	12.4%
2026-10-12T11:35:37+00:00	1.0%	16.2%	1.8%	26.1%	12.4%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00	1.0%	17.0%	1.8%	26.1%	12.4%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	1.0%	17.0%	1.8%	26.1%	12.4%
2026-10-12T13:51:08+00:00	0.6%	17.0%	1.8%	26.1%	12.4%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	0.6%	17.2%	1.9%	26.1%	12.4%
2026-10-12T15:27:38+00:00	0.6%	17.2%	1.9%	26.1%	12.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	0.6%	18.0%	1.9%	26.1%	12.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	0.6%	17.8%	1.9%	26.1%	12.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	0.6%	17.8%	0.4%	26.1%	12.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	0.6%	17.8%	0.4%	26.1%	12.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	0.6%	17.8%	0.4%	26.1%	12.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00	0.4%	17.8%	0.4%	5.8%	18.1%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00	0.4%	17.8%	0.4%	5.8%	18.1%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	0.4%	17.8%	0.4%	5.8%	18.1%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	0.4%	17.8%	0.4%	5.8%	18.1%
2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00	0.4%	17.8%	0.4%	5.8%	18.1%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00	0.4%	17.8%	0.4%	5.8%	18.1%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	0.4%	17.8%	0.4%	5.8%	18.1%
2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00	0.4%	17.8%	0.4%	5.8%	18.1%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	0.4%	17.8%	0.4%	5.8%	18.1%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	0.4%	17.8%	0.4%	5.8%	18.1%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	0.4%	17.8%	0.4%	5.8%	18.1%
2026-10-13T04:16:13+00:00	0.4%	17.8%	0.4%	5.8%	18.1%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	0.4%	17.8%	0.4%	5.8%	18.1%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	0.4%	17.8%	0.4%	5.8%	18.1%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	0.4%	17.8%	0.4%	5.8%	18.1%
2026-10-13T07:17:19+00:00	0.4%	17.8%	0.4%	5.8%	18.1%
2026-10-13T08:03:57+00:00	0.2%	17.8%	0.4%	1.2%	3.6%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	0.2%	17.8%	0.4%	1.2%	3.6%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	0.2%	17.8%	0.4%	1.2%	3.6%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	0.2%	17.8%	0.4%	1.2%	3.6%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	0.2%	17.8%	0.4%	1.2%	3.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	25%	85.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	83.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	14%	84.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-13 03:00	Pending
ICON	4%	78.9°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	1%	76.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	77.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	75.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261018-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Houston runs hot-for-here: 90°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗