— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
72¢
nbm
63¢
ndfd
54¢
aifs
45¢
icon
43¢
wn2
35¢
hres
32¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F4¢
78–79°F13¢
80–81°F26¢
82–83°F29¢
84–85°F19¢
86–87°F7¢
88–89°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,459 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.516 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KIAH-20261020-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-15T04:48:00+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape