KIAH / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

45%

43%

35%

32%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.1¢Risks 52.15u

HRESNO 47.9¢Risks 47.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.85u · HRES −47.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:48:00+00:00	41.9%	60.7%	38.2%	37.5%	48.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00	41.9%	60.7%	41.5%	37.5%	48.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	41.9%	60.7%	41.5%	37.5%	48.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	41.9%	60.7%	41.5%	37.5%	48.3%
2026-10-15T07:50:06+00:00	37.4%	60.7%	41.5%	41.8%	30.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	37.4%	60.7%	41.5%	41.8%	30.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	37.4%	60.7%	41.5%	41.8%	30.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	37.4%	60.7%	41.5%	41.8%	30.7%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00	37.4%	60.7%	41.5%	41.8%	30.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	37.4%	60.7%	40.4%	41.8%	30.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	37.4%	83.2%	40.4%	41.8%	30.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00	37.4%	83.2%	40.4%	41.8%	30.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	35.9%	83.2%	40.4%	41.8%	30.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	35.9%	83.2%	40.4%	41.8%	31.4%
2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00	35.9%	83.2%	40.4%	41.8%	31.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:40+00:00	35.5%	72.0%	29.5%	29.5%	54.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	35.5%	72.0%	29.5%	29.5%	54.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	35.5%	72.0%	29.5%	29.5%	54.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	35.5%	72.0%	29.5%	29.5%	54.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	35.5%	72.0%	29.5%	29.5%	54.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	35.5%	72.0%	29.5%	29.5%	54.9%
2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00	40.5%	72.0%	29.5%	29.5%	42.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:39+00:00	40.5%	72.0%	29.5%	29.5%	42.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	40.5%	72.0%	29.5%	29.5%	42.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	40.5%	72.0%	29.5%	29.5%	42.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	40.5%	72.0%	29.5%	32.3%	42.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	40.5%	72.0%	35.3%	32.3%	42.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	40.5%	72.0%	35.3%	32.3%	42.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	40.5%	72.0%	35.3%	32.3%	42.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	44.8%	72.0%	35.3%	32.3%	42.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	44.8%	72.0%	35.3%	32.3%	42.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	44.8%	72.0%	35.3%	32.3%	42.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	44.8%	72.0%	35.3%	32.3%	42.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	72%	84.9°F	2.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	85.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	82.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	43%	82.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	35%	82.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	81.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261020-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 15 · 04:48 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 84°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗