— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
75¢
ndfd
54¢
eps
54¢
icon
44¢
aifs
36¢
hres
32¢
wn2
18¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
80–81°F3¢
82–83°F11¢
84–85°F24¢
86–87°F30¢
88–89°F21¢
90–91°F9¢
92–93°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,361 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.86.
Receipts
prop id WP-KIAH-20261022-TMAX-GE87 · opened 2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape