KIAH / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

44%

36%

32%

18%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 35.8¢Risks 35.80u

WN2NO 64.2¢Risks 64.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +64.20u · WN2 −64.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	35.6%	53.5%	19.5%	33.7%	46.7%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	35.6%	53.5%	19.5%	33.7%	46.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	35.6%	53.5%	20.3%	33.7%	46.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	35.6%	53.5%	20.3%	33.7%	46.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	35.6%	53.5%	20.3%	33.7%	46.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	35.6%	53.5%	20.3%	33.7%	46.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	34.7%	53.5%	20.3%	32.3%	44.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	34.7%	53.5%	20.3%	32.3%	44.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	34.7%	53.5%	20.3%	32.3%	44.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	34.7%	53.5%	20.3%	32.3%	44.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	34.7%	53.5%	18.1%	32.3%	44.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	34.7%	53.5%	18.1%	32.3%	44.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	34.7%	53.5%	18.1%	32.3%	44.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	36.4%	53.5%	18.1%	32.3%	44.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	36.4%	53.5%	18.1%	32.3%	44.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	36.4%	53.5%	18.1%	32.3%	44.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	36.4%	53.5%	18.1%	32.3%	44.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	75%	88.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	87.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	86.7°F	2.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	44%	85.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	36%	84.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	84.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	83.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261022-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 87°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗