daily prop · Houston, TX · Plains & South Central · settles Thu Oct 22

Houston runs hot-for-here: 89°F+ · Thu Oct 22

22¢

american +353 · decimal 4.53

on the tape

89°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 89°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

nbm		41¢
ndfd		26¢
icon		23¢
hres		22¢
eps		22¢
aifs		19¢
wn2		17¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

80–81°F3¢

82–83°F11¢

84–85°F24¢

86–87°F30¢

88–89°F21¢

90–91°F9¢

92–93°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,361 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.86.

Receipts

prop id WP-KIAH-20261022-TMAX-GE89 · opened 2026-10-15T07:50:07+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape