KIAH / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

23%

22%

19%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 15.9¢Risks 15.90u

WN2NO 84.1¢Risks 84.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +84.10u · WN2 −84.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:50:07+00:00	34.8%	40.1%	35.6%	33.5%	0.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	34.8%	40.1%	35.6%	33.5%	0.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	34.8%	40.1%	35.6%	33.5%	0.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	34.8%	40.1%	35.6%	33.5%	0.7%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00	34.8%	40.1%	35.6%	33.5%	0.7%
2026-10-16T04:24:50+00:00	28.8%	42.4%	24.5%	37.8%	49.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	28.8%	42.4%	22.1%	37.8%	49.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	28.8%	42.4%	22.1%	37.8%	49.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	28.8%	42.4%	22.1%	37.8%	49.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	28.8%	42.4%	22.1%	37.8%	49.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	25.2%	42.4%	22.1%	37.8%	60.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	25.2%	42.4%	22.1%	37.8%	60.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	25.2%	42.4%	22.1%	37.8%	60.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	25.2%	42.4%	22.1%	37.8%	60.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:23+00:00	25.2%	28.6%	17.9%	37.8%	60.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	25.2%	28.6%	17.9%	37.8%	60.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	25.2%	28.6%	17.9%	37.8%	60.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:48+00:00	25.2%	28.6%	17.9%	37.8%	60.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:50+00:00	24.1%	28.6%	17.9%	30.9%	61.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:40+00:00	24.1%	30.9%	17.9%	30.9%	61.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	24.1%	30.4%	17.9%	30.9%	61.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	24.1%	30.4%	17.9%	30.9%	61.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	24.1%	30.4%	20.8%	30.9%	61.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	24.1%	30.4%	20.8%	30.9%	61.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	24.1%	30.4%	20.8%	30.9%	61.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00	23.5%	30.4%	20.8%	30.9%	50.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	23.5%	30.4%	20.8%	30.9%	50.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	23.5%	30.4%	20.8%	30.9%	50.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	23.5%	30.4%	20.8%	30.9%	50.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	23.5%	30.4%	20.8%	28.2%	50.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	23.5%	30.4%	23.3%	28.2%	50.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	23.5%	30.4%	23.3%	28.2%	50.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	23.5%	30.4%	23.3%	28.2%	50.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	24.7%	30.4%	23.3%	28.2%	50.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	24.7%	30.4%	23.3%	28.2%	50.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	24.7%	30.4%	23.3%	28.2%	50.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	24.7%	30.4%	23.3%	28.2%	50.0%
2026-10-17T04:42:13+00:00	24.7%	30.4%	23.3%	28.2%	50.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	24.7%	30.4%	21.4%	28.2%	50.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	24.7%	30.4%	21.4%	28.2%	50.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	24.7%	30.4%	21.4%	28.2%	50.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:49+00:00	23.4%	30.4%	21.4%	25.0%	41.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	23.4%	30.4%	21.4%	25.0%	41.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	23.4%	30.4%	21.4%	25.0%	41.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	23.4%	30.4%	21.4%	25.0%	41.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	23.4%	30.4%	21.4%	25.0%	41.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	23.4%	54.0%	15.9%	25.0%	41.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	23.4%	54.0%	15.9%	25.0%	41.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	23.4%	54.0%	15.9%	25.0%	41.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	22.8%	54.0%	15.9%	25.0%	41.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	22.7%	54.0%	15.9%	25.0%	41.6%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	22.7%	42.8%	15.9%	25.0%	41.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	22.7%	42.8%	15.9%	25.0%	41.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	22.7%	42.8%	15.9%	25.0%	41.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	22.7%	42.8%	13.2%	25.0%	41.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	22.7%	42.8%	13.2%	25.0%	41.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	22.7%	42.8%	13.2%	25.0%	41.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	22.7%	42.8%	13.2%	24.5%	41.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	22.7%	42.8%	13.2%	24.5%	41.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	22.7%	42.8%	13.2%	24.5%	41.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	22.7%	42.8%	13.2%	24.5%	41.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	22.7%	42.8%	13.2%	24.5%	41.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	22.7%	42.8%	13.7%	24.5%	41.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	22.7%	42.8%	13.7%	24.5%	41.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	22.7%	42.8%	13.7%	24.5%	41.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	23.4%	42.8%	13.7%	24.5%	41.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	23.4%	42.8%	13.7%	24.5%	41.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	23.4%	42.8%	13.7%	24.5%	41.0%
2026-10-18T04:14:27+00:00	23.4%	42.8%	13.7%	24.5%	41.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	23.4%	42.8%	15.9%	24.5%	41.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	23.4%	42.8%	15.9%	24.5%	41.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	23.4%	42.8%	15.9%	24.5%	41.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	23.4%	42.8%	15.9%	24.5%	41.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:35+00:00	21.0%	42.8%	15.9%	20.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	21.0%	42.8%	15.9%	20.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	21.0%	42.8%	15.9%	20.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	21.0%	42.8%	15.9%	20.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	21.0%	42.8%	15.9%	20.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	21.0%	30.9%	8.2%	20.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:50+00:00	21.0%	30.9%	8.2%	20.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	21.0%	30.9%	8.2%	20.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	21.0%	30.9%	8.2%	20.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	21.0%	30.9%	8.2%	20.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	21.0%	21.7%	8.2%	20.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	21.0%	21.7%	8.2%	20.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	21.0%	21.7%	8.6%	20.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	21.0%	21.7%	8.6%	20.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	21.0%	21.7%	8.6%	20.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	21.0%	21.7%	8.6%	20.6%	31.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	20.4%	21.7%	8.6%	19.5%	29.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	20.4%	21.7%	8.6%	19.5%	29.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	20.4%	21.7%	8.6%	19.5%	29.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	20.4%	21.7%	8.6%	19.5%	29.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	20.4%	21.7%	7.4%	19.5%	29.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	20.4%	21.7%	7.4%	19.5%	29.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	20.4%	21.7%	7.4%	19.5%	29.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	21.6%	21.7%	7.4%	19.5%	29.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	21.6%	21.7%	7.4%	19.5%	29.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	21.6%	21.7%	7.4%	19.5%	29.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	21.6%	21.7%	7.4%	19.5%	29.0%
2026-10-19T04:31:12+00:00	21.6%	21.7%	7.4%	19.5%	29.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	21.6%	21.7%	16.7%	19.5%	29.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	21.6%	21.7%	16.7%	19.5%	29.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	21.6%	21.7%	16.7%	19.5%	29.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00	19.3%	21.7%	16.7%	22.3%	22.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	19.3%	21.7%	16.7%	22.3%	22.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	19.3%	21.7%	16.7%	22.3%	22.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	19.3%	21.7%	16.7%	22.3%	22.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00	19.3%	21.7%	16.7%	22.3%	22.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00	19.3%	26.0%	5.8%	22.3%	22.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	41%	88.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	26%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	87.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	23%	85.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	85.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	84.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	83.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261022-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Houston runs hot-for-here: 89°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗