daily prop · Houston, TX · Plains & South Central · settles Fri Oct 23

Houston runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Fri Oct 23

46¢

american +119 · decimal 2.19

on the tape

88°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 88°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

nbm		75¢
icon		45¢
eps		39¢
aifs		37¢
ndfd		37¢
hres		34¢
wn2		29¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

84–85°F7¢

86–87°F31¢

88–89°F43¢

90–91°F17¢

92–93°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,312 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.165 vs climatology 8.861.

Receipts

prop id WP-KIAH-20261023-TMAX-GE88 · opened 2026-10-16T14:19:51+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape