KIAH / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

45%

45%

37%

34%

21%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 33.1¢Risks 33.10u

WN2NO 66.9¢Risks 66.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.90u · WN2 −66.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T14:19:51+00:00	34.5%	66.2%	31.9%	42.0%	1.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:40+00:00	34.5%	67.7%	31.9%	42.0%	1.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	34.5%	67.7%	31.9%	42.0%	1.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	34.5%	67.7%	31.9%	42.0%	1.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	34.5%	67.7%	31.2%	42.0%	1.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	34.5%	67.7%	31.2%	42.0%	1.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	34.5%	67.7%	31.2%	42.0%	1.9%
2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00	33.8%	67.7%	31.2%	42.0%	66.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	33.8%	67.7%	31.2%	42.0%	66.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	33.8%	67.7%	31.2%	42.0%	66.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	33.8%	67.7%	31.2%	42.0%	66.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	33.8%	67.7%	31.2%	39.0%	66.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	33.8%	67.7%	31.9%	39.0%	66.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	33.8%	67.7%	31.9%	39.0%	66.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	33.8%	67.7%	31.9%	39.0%	66.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	33.2%	67.7%	31.9%	39.0%	66.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	33.2%	67.7%	31.9%	39.0%	66.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	33.2%	67.7%	31.9%	39.0%	66.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	33.2%	67.7%	31.9%	39.0%	66.7%
2026-10-19T04:31:12+00:00	34.3%	39.3%	19.7%	29.0%	46.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	34.3%	39.3%	28.8%	29.0%	46.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	34.3%	39.3%	28.8%	29.0%	46.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	34.3%	39.3%	28.8%	29.0%	46.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00	37.2%	39.3%	28.8%	34.5%	45.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	37.2%	39.3%	28.8%	34.5%	45.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	37.2%	39.3%	28.8%	34.5%	45.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	37.2%	39.3%	28.8%	34.5%	45.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00	37.2%	39.3%	28.8%	34.5%	45.1%
2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00	37.2%	44.6%	21.1%	34.5%	45.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	91%	89.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	45%	86.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	87.2°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	86.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	37%	86.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	85.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	84.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261023-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Houston runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗