— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
100¢
eps
64¢
ndfd
54¢
icon
52¢
wn2
52¢
hres
50¢
aifs
48¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
84–85°F6¢
86–87°F30¢
88–89°F43¢
90–91°F18¢
92–93°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,263 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.483 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KIAH-20261024-TMAX-GE86 · opened 2026-10-19T04:31:12+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape