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KIAH / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
76%
ICON
52%
HRES
50%
WN2
50%
AIFS
48%
Consensus
94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 62.3¢Risks 62.30u
VS
AIFSNO 37.7¢Risks 37.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +37.70u · AIFS −37.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 46.3% · 2026-10-19T04:31:12+00:00AIFS Single: 46.3% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00AIFS Single: 46.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00AIFS Single: 46.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.9% · 2026-10-19T04:31:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.2% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.6% · 2026-10-19T04:31:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 51.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00IFS HRES: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T04:31:12+00:00IFS HRES: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS HRES: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS HRES: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00ICON: 59.4% · 2026-10-19T04:31:12+00:00ICON: 59.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00ICON: 59.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00ICON: 59.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00ICON: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00ICON: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00ICON: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00ICON: 52.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 08:1910-19 11:21
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:12+00:0046.3%63.9%46.6%44.0%59.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:0046.3%63.9%51.7%44.0%59.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:0046.3%63.9%51.7%44.0%59.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:0046.3%63.9%51.7%44.0%59.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:0048.4%63.9%51.7%50.0%52.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:0048.4%63.9%51.7%50.0%52.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:0048.4%63.9%51.7%50.0%52.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:0048.4%63.9%51.7%50.0%52.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:0048.4%63.9%51.7%50.0%52.0%
2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:0048.4%76.2%50.0%50.0%52.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend>99%89.0°F1.1°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble76%87.0°F2.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%86.0°F5.2°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
ICON52%85.8°F6.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES50%85.5°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 250%85.5°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single48%85.3°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261024-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 86°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗