daily prop · Houston, TX · Plains & South Central · settles Sat Oct 24

Houston runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Sat Oct 24

63¢

american -171 · decimal 1.59

on the tape

88°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 88°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

nbm		91¢
icon		39¢
ndfd		39¢
hres		36¢
wn2		35¢
eps		33¢
aifs		33¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

84–85°F6¢

86–87°F30¢

88–89°F43¢

90–91°F18¢

92–93°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,263 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.483 vs climatology 8.861.

Receipts

prop id WP-KIAH-20261024-TMAX-GE88 · opened 2026-10-17T07:44:50+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape