KIAH / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

39%

36%

33%

31%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 36.0¢Risks 8.99u

WN2NO 64.0¢Risks 16.01u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +16.01u · WN2 −16.01u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:50+00:00	35.1%	69.1%	39.9%	33.2%	3.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	35.1%	69.1%	39.9%	33.2%	3.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	35.1%	69.1%	39.9%	33.2%	3.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	35.1%	69.1%	39.9%	33.2%	3.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	35.1%	69.1%	39.9%	33.2%	3.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	35.1%	69.1%	39.2%	33.2%	3.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	35.1%	69.1%	39.2%	33.2%	3.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	35.1%	69.1%	39.2%	33.2%	3.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	38.4%	69.1%	39.2%	33.2%	3.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	38.4%	69.1%	39.2%	33.2%	3.1%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	38.4%	61.0%	39.2%	33.2%	3.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	38.4%	61.0%	39.2%	33.2%	3.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	38.4%	61.0%	39.2%	33.2%	3.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	38.4%	61.0%	37.7%	33.2%	3.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	38.4%	61.0%	37.7%	33.2%	3.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	38.4%	61.0%	37.7%	33.2%	3.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	35.1%	61.0%	37.7%	33.8%	56.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	35.1%	61.0%	37.7%	33.8%	56.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	35.1%	61.0%	37.7%	33.8%	56.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	35.1%	61.0%	37.7%	33.8%	56.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	35.1%	61.0%	37.7%	33.8%	56.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	35.1%	61.0%	35.5%	33.8%	56.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	35.1%	61.0%	35.5%	33.8%	56.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	35.1%	61.0%	35.5%	33.8%	56.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	37.1%	61.0%	35.5%	33.8%	56.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	37.1%	61.0%	35.5%	33.8%	56.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	37.1%	61.0%	35.5%	33.8%	56.0%
2026-10-19T04:31:14+00:00	32.2%	33.2%	30.4%	32.5%	48.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	32.2%	33.2%	35.0%	32.5%	48.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	32.2%	33.2%	35.0%	32.5%	48.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	32.2%	33.2%	35.0%	32.5%	48.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00	32.8%	33.2%	35.0%	36.5%	39.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	32.8%	33.2%	35.0%	36.5%	39.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	32.8%	33.2%	35.0%	36.5%	39.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	32.8%	33.2%	35.0%	36.5%	39.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00	32.8%	33.2%	35.0%	36.5%	39.1%
2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00	32.8%	40.6%	31.3%	36.5%	39.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	91%	89.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	87.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	39%	85.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	39%	86.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	85.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	85.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	31%	85.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261024-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Houston runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗