— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
94¢
eps
65¢
ndfd
53¢
icon
51¢
wn2
43¢
aifs
35¢
hres
25¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
76–77°F1¢
78–79°F3¢
80–81°F8¢
82–83°F16¢
84–85°F22¢
86–87°F22¢
88–89°F15¢
90–91°F8¢
92–93°F3¢
94–95°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,214 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.858 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KIAH-20261025-TMAX-GE86 · opened 2026-10-19T04:31:14+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape