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KIAH / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
51%
EPS
44%
WN2
40%
AIFS
35%
HRES
25%
Consensus
49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 37.9¢Risks 37.90u
VS
HRESNO 62.1¢Risks 62.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +62.10u · HRES −62.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-19T04:31:14+00:00AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.6% · 2026-10-19T04:31:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.6% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 64.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.5% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.7% · 2026-10-19T04:31:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.9% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00IFS HRES: 37.2% · 2026-10-19T04:31:14+00:00IFS HRES: 37.2% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS HRES: 37.2% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS HRES: 37.2% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00IFS HRES: 25.2% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00IFS HRES: 25.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS HRES: 25.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 25.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 25.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00IFS HRES: 25.2% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00ICON: 49.2% · 2026-10-19T04:31:14+00:00ICON: 49.2% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00ICON: 49.2% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00ICON: 49.2% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00ICON: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00ICON: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00ICON: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00ICON: 50.6% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 08:1910-19 11:21
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:14+00:0037.7%64.6%40.7%37.2%49.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:0037.7%64.6%43.0%37.2%49.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:0037.7%64.6%43.0%37.2%49.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:0037.7%64.6%43.0%37.2%49.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:0034.9%64.6%43.0%25.2%50.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:0034.9%64.6%43.0%25.2%50.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:0034.9%64.6%43.0%25.2%50.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:0034.9%64.6%43.0%25.2%50.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:0034.9%64.6%43.0%25.2%50.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:0034.9%43.5%39.9%25.2%50.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend77%88.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%86.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
ICON51%85.6°F7.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble44%85.1°F2.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 240%84.3°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single35%83.4°F5.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES25%81.1°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261025-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 86°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗