— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
56¢
ndfd
53¢
icon
35¢
hres
25¢
wn2
12¢
eps
10¢
aifs
9¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F4¢
64–65°F10¢
66–67°F19¢
68–69°F24¢
70–71°F21¢
72–73°F13¢
74–75°F5¢
76–77°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,205 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.906 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KICT-20261019-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-12T11:35:36+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape