KICT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

25%

12%

10%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 22.2¢Risks 22.20u

AIFSNO 77.8¢Risks 77.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +77.80u · AIFS −77.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T11:35:36+00:00	34.7%	26.3%	19.3%	56.9%	6.0%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00	34.7%	25.2%	19.3%	56.9%	6.0%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	34.7%	25.2%	19.3%	56.9%	6.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00	19.5%	25.2%	19.3%	56.9%	6.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00	19.7%	25.2%	19.3%	56.9%	6.1%
2026-10-12T15:27:34+00:00	19.7%	25.2%	19.3%	56.9%	6.1%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	19.7%	25.8%	19.3%	56.9%	6.1%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	19.7%	25.8%	12.2%	56.9%	6.1%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	19.7%	25.8%	12.2%	56.9%	6.1%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	19.7%	25.8%	12.2%	56.9%	6.1%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00	19.7%	25.8%	12.2%	56.9%	6.1%
2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00	10.3%	25.8%	12.2%	28.0%	60.0%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00	10.3%	25.8%	12.2%	28.0%	60.0%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	10.3%	25.8%	12.2%	28.0%	60.0%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	10.3%	25.8%	12.2%	28.0%	60.0%
2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00	10.3%	25.8%	8.9%	28.0%	60.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00	10.3%	25.8%	8.9%	28.0%	60.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	10.3%	25.8%	8.9%	28.0%	60.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00	10.3%	25.8%	8.9%	28.0%	60.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	18.7%	25.8%	8.9%	28.0%	60.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	18.7%	25.8%	8.9%	28.0%	60.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:03+00:00	18.7%	25.8%	8.9%	28.0%	60.0%
2026-10-13T04:16:09+00:00	18.7%	25.8%	8.9%	28.0%	60.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00	18.7%	25.8%	14.8%	28.0%	60.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	18.7%	25.8%	14.8%	28.0%	60.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	18.7%	25.8%	14.8%	28.0%	60.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:19+00:00	18.7%	25.8%	14.8%	28.0%	60.0%
2026-10-13T08:03:48+00:00	16.8%	25.8%	14.8%	26.1%	37.2%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	16.8%	25.8%	14.8%	26.1%	37.2%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	16.8%	25.8%	14.8%	26.1%	37.2%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	16.8%	25.8%	14.8%	26.1%	37.2%
2026-10-13T11:05:22+00:00	16.8%	9.3%	9.1%	26.1%	37.2%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	16.8%	9.3%	9.1%	26.1%	37.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	16.8%	9.3%	9.1%	26.1%	37.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	16.8%	9.3%	9.1%	26.1%	37.2%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	13.7%	9.3%	9.1%	26.1%	37.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	13.7%	9.7%	9.1%	26.1%	37.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:43+00:00	13.7%	9.7%	9.1%	26.1%	37.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	13.7%	9.7%	9.1%	26.1%	37.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	13.7%	9.7%	8.4%	26.1%	37.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	13.7%	9.7%	8.4%	26.1%	37.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	13.7%	9.7%	8.4%	26.1%	37.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	16.8%	9.7%	8.4%	26.1%	35.1%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	16.8%	9.7%	8.4%	26.1%	35.1%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	16.8%	9.7%	8.4%	26.1%	35.1%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00	16.8%	9.7%	8.4%	26.1%	35.1%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	16.8%	9.7%	8.4%	25.1%	35.1%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	16.8%	9.7%	12.4%	25.1%	35.1%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	16.8%	9.7%	12.4%	25.1%	35.1%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	16.8%	9.7%	12.4%	25.1%	35.1%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	9.3%	9.7%	12.4%	25.1%	35.1%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	9.3%	9.7%	12.4%	25.1%	35.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	77.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	77.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
ICON	35%	73.8°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	72.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	71.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	71.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	69.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261019-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗