daily prop · Wichita, KS · Plains & South Central · settles

Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Thu Oct 15

21¢

american +372 · decimal 4.72

on the tape

76°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 77°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

ndfd		54¢
nbm		41¢
aifs		28¢
wn2		18¢
hres		15¢
icon		12¢
eps		10¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

68–69°F2¢

70–71°F9¢

72–73°F23¢

74–75°F31¢

76–77°F23¢

78–79°F9¢

80–81°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KICT-20261020-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-08T07:38:13+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape