KICT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST21%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

18%

15%

12%

10%

Consensus

21%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 19.0¢Risks 9.50u

EPSNO 81.0¢Risks 40.50u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +40.50u · EPS −40.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:21+00:00	21.3%	8.4%	18.4%	21.9%	28.1%
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	21.3%	8.4%	18.4%	21.9%	28.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	21.3%	8.4%	20.2%	21.9%	28.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	21.3%	8.4%	20.2%	21.9%	28.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	21.3%	8.4%	20.2%	21.9%	28.1%
2026-10-15T07:49:59+00:00	19.9%	8.4%	20.2%	26.1%	26.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	19.9%	8.4%	20.2%	26.1%	26.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	19.9%	8.4%	20.2%	26.1%	26.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:34+00:00	19.9%	8.4%	20.2%	26.1%	26.1%
2026-10-15T10:53:36+00:00	19.9%	8.4%	13.7%	26.1%	26.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	19.9%	8.4%	13.7%	26.1%	26.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	19.9%	18.4%	13.7%	26.1%	26.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:30+00:00	19.9%	18.4%	13.7%	26.1%	26.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:53+00:00	17.7%	18.4%	13.7%	26.1%	26.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	17.7%	18.4%	13.7%	26.1%	26.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:25+00:00	17.7%	12.9%	13.7%	26.1%	26.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:03+00:00	17.7%	12.9%	13.7%	26.1%	26.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	17.7%	12.9%	15.9%	26.1%	26.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	17.7%	12.9%	15.9%	26.1%	26.8%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	17.7%	12.9%	15.9%	26.1%	26.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:09+00:00	17.7%	12.9%	15.9%	26.1%	26.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	21.6%	12.9%	15.9%	23.4%	38.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	21.6%	12.9%	15.9%	23.4%	38.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	21.6%	12.9%	15.9%	23.4%	38.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	21.6%	12.9%	15.9%	23.4%	38.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	21.6%	12.9%	18.4%	23.4%	38.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	21.6%	12.9%	18.4%	23.4%	38.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00	21.6%	12.9%	18.4%	23.4%	38.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00	25.3%	12.9%	18.4%	23.4%	38.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	25.3%	12.9%	18.4%	23.4%	38.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	25.3%	12.9%	18.4%	23.4%	38.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	25.3%	12.9%	18.4%	23.4%	38.8%
2026-10-16T04:24:35+00:00	25.3%	12.9%	18.4%	23.4%	38.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	25.3%	12.9%	20.4%	23.4%	38.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	25.3%	12.9%	20.4%	23.4%	38.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	25.3%	12.9%	20.4%	23.4%	38.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	23.6%	12.9%	20.4%	23.4%	14.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	23.6%	12.9%	20.4%	23.4%	14.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	23.6%	12.9%	20.4%	23.4%	14.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	23.6%	12.9%	20.4%	23.4%	14.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	23.6%	12.9%	20.4%	23.4%	14.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:22+00:00	23.6%	13.1%	13.5%	23.4%	14.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	23.6%	13.1%	13.5%	23.4%	14.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	23.6%	13.1%	13.5%	23.4%	14.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:44+00:00	21.6%	13.1%	13.5%	14.5%	14.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	21.6%	13.1%	13.5%	14.5%	14.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:37+00:00	21.6%	10.2%	13.5%	14.5%	14.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	21.6%	10.2%	13.5%	14.5%	14.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	21.6%	10.2%	13.5%	14.5%	14.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	21.6%	10.2%	14.7%	14.5%	14.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	21.6%	10.2%	14.7%	14.5%	14.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	21.6%	10.2%	14.7%	14.5%	14.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:09+00:00	22.2%	10.2%	14.7%	14.5%	11.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:37+00:00	22.2%	10.2%	14.7%	14.5%	11.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	22.2%	10.2%	14.7%	14.5%	11.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	22.2%	10.2%	14.7%	14.5%	11.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	22.2%	10.2%	14.7%	14.9%	11.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	22.2%	10.2%	18.0%	14.9%	11.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	22.2%	10.2%	18.0%	14.9%	11.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	22.2%	10.2%	18.0%	14.9%	11.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	27.8%	10.2%	18.0%	14.9%	11.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	27.8%	10.2%	18.0%	14.9%	11.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	27.8%	10.2%	18.0%	14.9%	11.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	27.8%	10.2%	18.0%	14.9%	11.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	28%	73.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	73.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	71.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	12%	70.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	72.3°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗