— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
58¢
nbm
56¢
icon
55¢
ndfd
53¢
aifs
46¢
hres
42¢
eps
12¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F2¢
70–71°F9¢
72–73°F23¢
74–75°F31¢
76–77°F23¢
78–79°F9¢
80–81°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KICT-20261021-TMAX-GE78 · opened 2026-10-15T15:34:25+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape