KICT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

55%

46%

42%

12%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 34.8¢Risks 34.85u

EPSNO 65.1¢Risks 65.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +65.15u · EPS −65.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:25+00:00	55.9%	12.1%	48.3%	39.8%	43.3%
2026-10-15T16:20:03+00:00	55.9%	12.1%	48.3%	39.8%	43.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	55.9%	12.1%	50.0%	39.8%	43.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	55.9%	12.1%	50.0%	39.8%	43.3%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	55.9%	12.1%	50.0%	39.8%	43.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:09+00:00	55.9%	12.1%	50.0%	39.8%	43.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	43.4%	12.1%	50.0%	42.2%	55.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	43.4%	12.1%	50.0%	42.2%	55.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	43.4%	12.1%	50.0%	42.2%	55.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	43.4%	12.1%	50.0%	42.2%	55.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	43.4%	12.1%	57.6%	42.2%	55.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	43.4%	12.1%	57.6%	42.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00	43.4%	12.1%	57.6%	42.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00	45.6%	12.1%	57.6%	42.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	45.6%	12.1%	57.6%	42.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	45.6%	12.1%	57.6%	42.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	45.6%	12.1%	57.6%	42.2%	55.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	58%	78.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	78.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	55%	78.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	78.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	76.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	76.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	73.6°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261021-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 78°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗