daily prop · Wichita, KS · Plains & South Central · settles Wed Oct 21

Wichita runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Wed Oct 21

2¢

american +6310 · decimal 64.1

on the tape

81°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 81°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

ndfd		15¢
aifs		10¢
rrfs		9¢
eps		4¢
icon		4¢
wn2		4¢
hres		3¢
nbm		1¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

68–69°F2¢

70–71°F9¢

72–73°F23¢

74–75°F32¢

76–77°F23¢

78–79°F9¢

80–81°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,561 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.512 vs climatology 8.841.

Receipts

prop id WP-KICT-20261021-TMAX-GE81 · opened 2026-10-14T10:33:46+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape