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KICT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
10%
EPS
4%
ICON
4%
WN2
4%
HRES
3%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 6.1¢Risks 1.52u
VS
HRESNO 93.9¢Risks 23.48u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.48u · HRES −23.48u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 13.5% · 2026-10-14T10:33:46+00:00AIFS Single: 13.5% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00AIFS Single: 13.5% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00AIFS Single: 13.5% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00AIFS Single: 36.1% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00AIFS Single: 36.1% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00AIFS Single: 36.1% · 2026-10-14T15:12:31+00:00AIFS Single: 36.1% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00AIFS Single: 36.1% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00AIFS Single: 36.1% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00AIFS Single: 36.1% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00AIFS Single: 36.1% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00AIFS Single: 24.9% · 2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00AIFS Single: 24.9% · 2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00AIFS Single: 24.9% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00AIFS Single: 24.9% · 2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00AIFS Single: 24.9% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00AIFS Single: 24.9% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00AIFS Single: 24.9% · 2026-10-15T00:15:07+00:00AIFS Single: 24.9% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00AIFS Single: 26.1% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00AIFS Single: 26.1% · 2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00AIFS Single: 26.1% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00AIFS Single: 34.2% · 2026-10-15T15:34:25+00:00AIFS Single: 34.2% · 2026-10-15T16:20:03+00:00AIFS Single: 34.2% · 2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00AIFS Single: 34.2% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00AIFS Single: 34.2% · 2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.2% · 2026-10-15T19:21:09+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00AIFS Single: 19.8% · 2026-10-18T04:14:19+00:00AIFS Single: 19.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00AIFS Single: 19.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00AIFS Single: 19.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00AIFS Single: 19.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-18T08:01:30+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-18T11:02:53+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-18T12:33:48+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-18T14:55:59+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-18T17:57:31+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00AIFS Single: 16.3% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00AIFS Single: 16.3% · 2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00AIFS Single: 16.3% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00AIFS Single: 16.3% · 2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00AIFS Single: 16.3% · 2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00AIFS Single: 16.3% · 2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00AIFS Single: 16.3% · 2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00AIFS Single: 16.3% · 2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-19T04:31:08+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:23+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-19T11:21:05+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.5% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.5% · 2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:00AIFS Single: 9.5% · 2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00AIFS Single: 9.5% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00AIFS Single: 9.5% · 2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00AIFS Single: 9.5% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00AIFS Single: 9.5% · 2026-10-19T19:00:08+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00AIFS Single: 9.5% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00AIFS Single: 9.5% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00AIFS Single: 9.5% · 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.4% · 2026-10-14T10:33:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.7% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.7% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.7% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.7% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.7% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T15:12:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.0% · 2026-10-15T00:15:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.0% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.0% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.0% · 2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.0% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-15T15:34:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-15T16:20:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-15T19:21:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T04:14:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T08:01:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T11:02:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T12:33:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.0% · 2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.0% · 2026-10-18T14:55:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T17:57:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T04:31:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T11:21:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T19:00:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.4% · 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.7% · 2026-10-14T10:33:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.4% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.4% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.4% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.4% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.5% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.5% · 2026-10-14T15:12:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.5% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.5% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.4% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.4% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.4% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.4% · 2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.4% · 2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.4% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.4% · 2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.4% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.2% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.2% · 2026-10-15T00:15:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.2% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.2% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.2% · 2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.2% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.7% · 2026-10-15T15:34:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.7% · 2026-10-15T16:20:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-15T19:21:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.6% · 2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.6% · 2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.6% · 2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.6% · 2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.6% · 2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.6% · 2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.6% · 2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.8% · 2026-10-18T04:14:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.6% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.6% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.6% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.6% · 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.0% · 2026-10-18T11:02:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.0% · 2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.0% · 2026-10-18T12:33:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.0% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.0% · 2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.0% · 2026-10-18T14:55:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.0% · 2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.0% · 2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.6% · 2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.6% · 2026-10-18T17:57:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.6% · 2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.6% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.6% · 2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.6% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.6% · 2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.6% · 2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.6% · 2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.6% · 2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.6% · 2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.6% · 2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.6% · 2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.6% · 2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.6% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.6% · 2026-10-19T04:31:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.6% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.7% · 2026-10-19T11:21:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.7% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.7% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.7% · 2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.7% · 2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.7% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T19:00:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.5% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.5% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.5% · 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-14T10:33:46+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-14T15:12:31+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00IFS HRES: 17.6% · 2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00IFS HRES: 17.6% · 2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00IFS HRES: 17.6% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00IFS HRES: 17.6% · 2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00IFS HRES: 17.6% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00IFS HRES: 17.6% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00IFS HRES: 17.6% · 2026-10-15T00:15:07+00:00IFS HRES: 17.6% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00IFS HRES: 17.6% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00IFS HRES: 17.6% · 2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00IFS HRES: 17.6% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00IFS HRES: 23.8% · 2026-10-15T15:34:25+00:00IFS HRES: 23.8% · 2026-10-15T16:20:03+00:00IFS HRES: 23.8% · 2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00IFS HRES: 23.8% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00IFS HRES: 23.8% · 2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00IFS HRES: 23.8% · 2026-10-15T19:21:09+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-18T04:14:19+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00IFS HRES: 9.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:30+00:00IFS HRES: 9.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00IFS HRES: 9.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00IFS HRES: 9.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS HRES: 9.0% · 2026-10-18T11:02:53+00:00IFS HRES: 9.0% · 2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00IFS HRES: 9.0% · 2026-10-18T12:33:48+00:00IFS HRES: 9.0% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T14:55:59+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T17:57:31+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00IFS HRES: 7.9% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00IFS HRES: 7.9% · 2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00IFS HRES: 7.9% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00IFS HRES: 7.9% · 2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00IFS HRES: 7.9% · 2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00IFS HRES: 7.9% · 2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00IFS HRES: 7.9% · 2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00IFS HRES: 7.9% · 2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00IFS HRES: 7.9% · 2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00IFS HRES: 7.9% · 2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00IFS HRES: 7.9% · 2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00IFS HRES: 7.9% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00IFS HRES: 7.9% · 2026-10-19T04:31:08+00:00IFS HRES: 7.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00IFS HRES: 7.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00IFS HRES: 7.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:23+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-10-19T11:21:05+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-10-19T19:00:08+00:00IFS HRES: 2.7% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00IFS HRES: 2.7% · 2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00IFS HRES: 2.7% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00IFS HRES: 2.7% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00IFS HRES: 2.7% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00IFS HRES: 2.7% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00IFS HRES: 2.7% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00IFS HRES: 2.7% · 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-14T10:33:46+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-10-14T15:12:31+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-15T00:15:07+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00ICON: 44.8% · 2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00ICON: 27.7% · 2026-10-15T15:34:25+00:00ICON: 27.7% · 2026-10-15T16:20:03+00:00ICON: 27.7% · 2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00ICON: 27.7% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00ICON: 27.7% · 2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00ICON: 27.7% · 2026-10-15T19:21:09+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00ICON: 12.1% · 2026-10-18T04:14:19+00:00ICON: 12.1% · 2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00ICON: 12.1% · 2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00ICON: 12.1% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00ICON: 12.1% · 2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T08:01:30+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T11:02:53+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T12:33:48+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00ICON: 8.8% · 2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00ICON: 8.8% · 2026-10-18T14:55:59+00:00ICON: 8.8% · 2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00ICON: 8.8% · 2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00ICON: 8.8% · 2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00ICON: 8.8% · 2026-10-18T17:57:31+00:00ICON: 8.8% · 2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-19T04:31:08+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:23+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:05+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-19T19:00:08+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:0010-14 10:3310-18 11:4810-20 03:18
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T10:33:46+00:0013.5%19.4%19.7%34.7%14.1%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:0013.5%5.7%19.4%34.7%14.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:0013.5%5.7%19.4%34.7%14.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:0013.5%5.7%19.4%34.7%14.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:0036.1%5.7%19.4%34.7%14.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:0036.1%5.7%19.5%34.7%14.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:31+00:0036.1%6.0%19.5%34.7%14.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:0036.1%6.0%19.5%34.7%14.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:0036.1%6.0%19.5%34.7%14.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:0036.1%6.0%22.4%34.7%14.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:0036.1%6.0%22.4%34.7%14.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:0036.1%6.0%22.4%34.7%14.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:0024.9%6.0%22.4%17.6%44.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:0024.9%6.0%22.4%17.6%44.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:0024.9%6.0%22.4%17.6%44.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:0024.9%6.0%22.4%17.6%44.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:0024.9%6.0%22.4%17.6%44.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:0024.9%6.0%21.2%17.6%44.8%
2026-10-15T00:15:07+00:0024.9%6.0%21.2%17.6%44.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:0024.9%6.0%21.2%17.6%44.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:0026.1%6.0%21.2%17.6%44.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:0026.1%6.0%21.2%17.6%44.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:0026.1%6.0%21.2%17.6%44.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:25+00:0034.2%1.9%24.7%23.8%27.7%
2026-10-15T16:20:03+00:0034.2%1.9%24.7%23.8%27.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:0034.2%1.9%26.0%23.8%27.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:0034.2%1.9%26.0%23.8%27.7%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:0034.2%1.9%26.0%23.8%27.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:09+00:0034.2%1.9%26.0%23.8%27.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:0023.5%1.9%26.0%25.7%38.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:0023.5%1.9%26.0%25.7%38.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:0023.5%1.9%26.0%25.7%38.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:0023.5%1.9%26.0%25.7%38.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:0023.5%1.9%32.6%25.7%38.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:0023.5%1.9%32.6%25.7%38.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:0023.5%1.9%32.6%25.7%38.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:0025.2%1.9%32.6%25.7%38.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:0025.2%1.9%32.6%25.7%38.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:0025.2%1.9%32.6%25.7%38.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:0025.2%1.9%32.6%25.7%38.4%
2026-10-18T04:14:19+00:0019.8%4.1%14.8%10.7%12.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:0019.8%4.1%22.6%10.7%12.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:0019.8%4.1%22.6%10.7%12.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:0019.8%4.1%22.6%10.7%12.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:0019.8%4.1%22.6%10.7%12.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:30+00:0017.5%4.1%22.6%9.0%8.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:0017.5%4.1%22.6%9.0%8.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:0017.5%4.1%22.6%9.0%8.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:0017.5%4.1%22.6%9.0%8.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:53+00:0017.5%3.5%13.0%9.0%8.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:0017.5%3.5%13.0%9.0%8.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:48+00:0017.5%3.5%13.0%9.0%8.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:0017.5%3.5%13.0%9.0%8.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:0015.7%4.0%13.0%8.9%8.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:59+00:0015.7%4.0%13.0%8.9%8.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:0015.7%3.5%13.0%8.9%8.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:0015.7%3.5%13.0%8.9%8.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:0015.7%3.5%9.6%8.9%8.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:31+00:0015.7%3.5%9.6%8.9%8.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:0015.7%3.5%9.6%8.9%8.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:0016.3%3.5%9.6%7.9%3.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:0016.3%3.5%9.6%7.9%3.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:0016.3%3.5%9.6%7.9%3.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:0016.3%3.5%9.6%7.9%3.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:0016.3%3.5%9.6%7.9%3.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:0016.3%3.5%10.6%7.9%3.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:0016.3%3.5%10.6%7.9%3.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:0016.3%3.5%10.6%7.9%3.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:0014.6%3.5%10.6%7.9%3.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:0014.6%3.5%10.6%7.9%3.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:0014.6%3.5%10.6%7.9%3.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:0014.6%3.5%10.6%7.9%3.6%
2026-10-19T04:31:08+00:0014.6%3.5%10.6%7.9%3.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:0014.6%3.5%13.6%7.9%3.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:0014.6%3.5%13.6%7.9%3.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:0014.6%3.5%13.6%7.9%3.6%
2026-10-19T07:33:23+00:0010.5%3.5%13.6%6.8%8.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:0010.5%3.5%13.6%6.8%8.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:0010.5%3.5%13.6%6.8%8.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:0010.5%3.5%13.6%6.8%8.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:0010.5%3.5%13.6%6.8%8.0%
2026-10-19T11:21:05+00:0010.5%4.4%5.7%6.8%8.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:0010.5%4.4%5.7%6.8%8.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:0010.5%4.4%5.7%6.8%8.0%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:009.6%4.4%5.7%6.8%8.0%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:009.5%4.4%5.7%6.8%8.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:009.5%4.4%5.7%6.8%8.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:009.5%4.4%5.7%6.8%8.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:009.5%4.4%5.7%6.8%8.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:009.5%4.4%4.4%6.8%8.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:009.5%4.4%4.4%6.8%8.0%
2026-10-19T19:00:08+00:009.5%4.4%4.4%6.8%8.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:008.7%4.4%4.4%2.7%3.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:008.7%4.4%4.4%2.7%3.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:008.7%4.4%4.4%2.7%3.6%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:008.7%4.4%4.4%2.7%3.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:008.7%4.4%4.4%2.7%3.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:009.5%4.4%3.5%2.7%3.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:009.5%4.4%3.5%2.7%3.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:009.5%4.4%3.5%2.7%3.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast15%77.0°F3.4°F2026-10-19 14:00Pending
AIFS Single10%75.2°F4.0°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble4%74.3°F3.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON4%74.1°F3.6°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 24%74.9°F3.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS HRES3%72.6°F4.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
National Blend<1%75.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261021-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Wichita runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗