— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
71¢
aifs
62¢
nbm
59¢
ndfd
55¢
icon
49¢
hres
39¢
eps
35¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F1¢
72–73°F5¢
74–75°F14¢
76–77°F24¢
78–79°F26¢
80–81°F18¢
82–83°F8¢
84–85°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KICT-20261022-TMAX-GE78 · opened 2026-10-15T10:53:36+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape