KICT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

62%

49%

39%

35%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.2¢Risks 53.25u

EPSNO 46.8¢Risks 46.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.75u · EPS −46.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T10:53:36+00:00	70.3%	45.0%	67.7%	63.6%	4.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	70.3%	45.0%	67.7%	63.6%	4.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	70.3%	46.7%	67.7%	63.6%	4.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:30+00:00	70.3%	46.7%	67.7%	63.6%	4.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:53+00:00	65.0%	46.7%	67.5%	63.4%	4.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	65.0%	46.7%	67.5%	63.4%	4.2%
2026-10-15T15:34:25+00:00	65.0%	38.6%	67.5%	63.4%	4.2%
2026-10-15T16:20:03+00:00	65.0%	38.6%	67.5%	63.4%	4.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	65.0%	38.6%	73.6%	63.4%	4.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	65.0%	38.6%	73.6%	63.4%	4.2%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	65.0%	38.6%	73.6%	63.4%	4.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:09+00:00	65.0%	38.6%	73.6%	63.4%	4.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	64.4%	38.6%	73.6%	62.2%	58.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	64.4%	38.6%	73.6%	62.2%	58.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	64.4%	38.6%	73.6%	62.2%	58.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	64.4%	38.6%	73.6%	62.2%	58.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	64.4%	38.6%	83.8%	62.2%	58.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	64.3%	38.6%	83.8%	62.2%	58.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00	64.3%	38.6%	83.8%	62.2%	58.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00	70.6%	38.6%	83.8%	62.2%	58.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	70.6%	38.6%	83.8%	62.2%	58.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	70.6%	38.6%	83.8%	62.2%	58.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	70.6%	38.6%	83.8%	62.2%	58.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:00	58.4%	35.1%	74.4%	44.6%	55.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	58.4%	35.1%	74.4%	44.6%	55.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	58.4%	35.1%	74.4%	44.6%	55.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	58.4%	35.1%	65.1%	44.6%	55.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	58.4%	35.1%	65.1%	44.6%	55.0%
2026-10-19T19:00:08+00:00	58.4%	35.1%	65.1%	44.6%	55.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	58.4%	35.1%	65.1%	39.4%	49.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	58.4%	35.1%	65.1%	39.4%	49.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	58.4%	35.1%	65.1%	39.4%	49.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	58.4%	35.1%	65.1%	39.4%	49.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	58.4%	35.1%	65.1%	39.4%	49.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	58.4%	35.1%	71.4%	39.4%	49.0%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	58.4%	35.1%	71.4%	39.4%	49.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	58.4%	35.1%	71.4%	39.4%	49.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	62.0%	35.1%	71.4%	39.4%	49.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	62.0%	35.1%	71.4%	39.4%	49.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	62.0%	35.1%	71.4%	39.4%	49.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	71%	79.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	62%	78.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	49%	77.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	76.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	76.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261022-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 78°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗