daily prop · Wichita, KS · Plains & South Central · settles Thu Oct 22

Wichita runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Thu Oct 22

29¢

american +244 · decimal 3.44

on the tape

80°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 80°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		56¢
aifs		46¢
hres		33¢
rrfs		29¢
icon		27¢
eps		25¢
ndfd		23¢
nbm		22¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

70–71°F1¢

72–73°F5¢

74–75°F14¢

76–77°F24¢

78–79°F26¢

80–81°F18¢

82–83°F8¢

84–85°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KICT-20261022-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-15T10:53:36+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape