KICT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

46%

33%

27%

25%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 40.6¢Risks 40.65u

EPSNO 59.4¢Risks 59.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +59.35u · EPS −59.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T10:53:36+00:00	57.1%	26.6%	52.4%	51.3%	2.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:29+00:00	57.1%	26.6%	52.4%	51.3%	2.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	57.1%	26.1%	52.4%	51.3%	2.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:30+00:00	57.1%	26.1%	52.4%	51.3%	2.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:53+00:00	51.4%	26.1%	52.4%	51.2%	2.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	51.4%	26.1%	52.4%	51.2%	2.7%
2026-10-15T15:34:25+00:00	51.4%	20.7%	52.4%	51.2%	2.7%
2026-10-15T16:20:03+00:00	51.4%	20.7%	52.4%	51.2%	2.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	51.4%	20.7%	59.3%	51.2%	2.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	51.4%	20.7%	59.3%	51.2%	2.7%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	51.4%	20.7%	59.3%	51.2%	2.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:09+00:00	51.4%	20.7%	59.3%	51.2%	2.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	50.7%	20.7%	59.3%	50.0%	50.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	50.7%	20.7%	59.3%	50.0%	50.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	50.7%	20.7%	59.3%	50.0%	50.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	50.7%	20.7%	59.3%	50.0%	50.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	50.7%	20.7%	72.3%	50.0%	50.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	50.7%	20.7%	72.3%	50.0%	50.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:26+00:00	50.7%	20.7%	72.3%	50.0%	50.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00	57.6%	20.7%	72.3%	50.0%	50.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	57.6%	20.7%	72.3%	50.0%	50.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	57.6%	20.7%	72.3%	50.0%	50.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	57.6%	20.7%	72.3%	50.0%	50.4%
2026-10-16T04:24:37+00:00	57.6%	20.7%	72.3%	50.0%	50.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	57.6%	20.7%	70.9%	50.0%	50.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	57.6%	20.7%	70.9%	50.0%	50.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	57.6%	20.7%	70.9%	50.0%	50.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	55.2%	20.7%	70.9%	50.0%	51.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	55.2%	20.7%	70.9%	50.0%	51.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	55.2%	20.7%	70.9%	50.0%	51.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	55.2%	20.7%	70.9%	50.0%	51.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	55.2%	20.7%	70.9%	50.0%	51.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:22+00:00	55.2%	16.7%	68.9%	50.0%	51.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	55.2%	16.7%	68.9%	50.0%	51.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	55.2%	16.7%	68.9%	50.0%	51.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:44+00:00	55.9%	16.7%	68.9%	39.3%	51.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	55.9%	16.8%	68.9%	39.3%	51.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:37+00:00	55.9%	14.8%	68.9%	39.3%	51.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	55.9%	14.6%	68.9%	39.3%	51.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	55.9%	14.6%	68.9%	39.3%	51.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	55.9%	14.6%	76.0%	39.3%	51.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	55.9%	14.6%	76.0%	39.3%	51.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	55.9%	14.6%	76.0%	39.3%	51.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:09+00:00	54.4%	14.6%	76.0%	39.3%	47.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:37+00:00	54.4%	14.6%	76.0%	39.3%	47.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	54.4%	14.6%	76.0%	39.3%	47.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	54.4%	14.6%	76.0%	39.3%	47.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	54.4%	14.6%	76.0%	36.4%	47.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	54.4%	14.6%	76.7%	36.4%	47.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	54.4%	14.6%	76.7%	36.4%	47.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	54.4%	14.6%	76.7%	36.4%	47.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	54.4%	14.6%	76.7%	36.4%	47.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	54.4%	14.6%	76.7%	36.4%	47.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	54.4%	14.6%	76.7%	36.4%	47.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	54.4%	14.6%	76.7%	36.4%	47.2%
2026-10-17T04:42:04+00:00	54.4%	14.6%	76.7%	36.4%	47.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00	54.4%	14.6%	73.3%	36.4%	47.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	54.4%	14.6%	73.3%	36.4%	47.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	54.4%	14.6%	73.3%	36.4%	47.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:41+00:00	53.2%	14.6%	73.3%	39.1%	47.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	53.2%	14.6%	73.3%	39.1%	47.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	53.2%	14.6%	73.3%	39.1%	47.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	53.2%	14.6%	73.3%	39.1%	47.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	53.2%	14.6%	73.3%	39.1%	47.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:00	53.2%	27.6%	70.4%	39.1%	47.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	53.2%	27.6%	70.4%	39.1%	47.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	53.2%	27.6%	70.4%	39.1%	47.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	50.8%	27.6%	70.4%	39.1%	47.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	50.8%	27.6%	70.4%	39.1%	47.4%
2026-10-17T15:25:04+00:00	50.8%	21.5%	70.4%	39.1%	47.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	50.8%	21.5%	70.4%	39.1%	47.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	50.8%	21.5%	72.0%	39.1%	47.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	50.8%	21.5%	72.0%	39.1%	47.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	50.8%	21.5%	72.0%	39.1%	47.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	50.8%	21.5%	72.0%	39.1%	47.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	48.4%	21.5%	72.0%	28.4%	36.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	48.4%	21.5%	72.0%	28.4%	36.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	48.4%	21.5%	72.0%	28.4%	36.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	48.4%	21.5%	72.0%	28.4%	36.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	48.4%	21.5%	64.2%	28.4%	36.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	48.4%	21.5%	64.2%	28.4%	36.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00	48.4%	21.5%	64.2%	28.4%	36.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	48.4%	21.5%	64.2%	28.4%	36.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	48.4%	21.5%	64.2%	28.4%	36.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	48.4%	21.5%	64.2%	28.4%	36.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	48.4%	21.5%	64.2%	28.4%	36.6%
2026-10-18T04:14:19+00:00	48.4%	21.5%	64.2%	28.4%	36.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	48.4%	21.5%	67.8%	28.4%	36.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	48.4%	21.5%	67.8%	28.4%	36.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	48.4%	21.5%	67.8%	28.4%	36.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	48.4%	21.5%	67.8%	28.4%	36.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:30+00:00	47.4%	21.5%	67.8%	25.5%	36.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	47.4%	21.5%	67.8%	25.5%	36.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	47.4%	21.5%	67.8%	25.5%	36.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	47.4%	21.5%	67.8%	25.5%	36.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:53+00:00	47.4%	18.3%	62.6%	25.5%	36.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	47.4%	18.3%	62.6%	25.5%	36.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:48+00:00	47.4%	18.3%	62.6%	25.5%	36.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	47.4%	18.3%	62.6%	25.5%	36.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	43.9%	18.3%	62.6%	25.5%	36.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:59+00:00	43.9%	18.3%	62.6%	25.5%	36.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	43.9%	17.4%	62.6%	25.5%	36.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	43.9%	17.4%	62.6%	25.5%	36.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	43.9%	17.4%	55.3%	25.5%	36.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:31+00:00	43.9%	17.4%	55.3%	25.5%	36.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	43.9%	17.4%	55.3%	25.5%	36.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	44.8%	17.4%	55.3%	21.8%	30.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	44.8%	17.4%	55.3%	21.8%	30.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	44.8%	17.4%	55.3%	21.8%	30.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	44.8%	17.4%	55.3%	21.8%	30.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	44.8%	17.4%	55.3%	21.8%	30.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	44.8%	17.4%	54.3%	21.8%	30.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	44.8%	17.4%	54.3%	21.8%	30.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00	44.8%	17.4%	54.3%	21.8%	30.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	44.8%	17.4%	54.3%	21.8%	30.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	44.8%	17.4%	54.3%	21.8%	30.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	44.8%	17.4%	54.3%	21.8%	30.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	44.8%	17.4%	54.3%	21.8%	30.4%
2026-10-19T04:31:08+00:00	44.8%	17.4%	54.3%	21.8%	30.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00	44.8%	17.4%	58.5%	21.8%	30.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	44.8%	17.4%	58.5%	21.8%	30.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	44.8%	17.4%	58.5%	21.8%	30.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:23+00:00	45.3%	17.4%	58.5%	28.0%	35.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	45.3%	17.4%	58.5%	28.0%	35.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	45.3%	17.4%	58.5%	28.0%	35.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	45.3%	17.4%	58.5%	28.0%	35.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00	45.3%	17.4%	58.5%	28.0%	35.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:05+00:00	45.3%	16.6%	52.4%	28.0%	35.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00	45.3%	16.6%	52.4%	28.0%	35.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	45.3%	16.6%	52.4%	28.0%	35.3%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	39.8%	16.6%	52.4%	28.0%	35.3%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	39.8%	16.6%	52.4%	28.0%	35.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:00	39.8%	16.6%	52.4%	28.0%	35.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	39.8%	16.6%	52.4%	28.0%	35.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	39.8%	16.6%	52.4%	28.0%	35.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	39.8%	16.6%	41.7%	28.0%	35.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	39.8%	16.6%	41.7%	28.0%	35.3%
2026-10-19T19:00:08+00:00	39.8%	16.6%	41.7%	28.0%	35.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	39.8%	16.6%	41.7%	23.7%	29.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	39.8%	16.6%	41.7%	23.7%	29.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	39.8%	16.6%	41.7%	23.7%	29.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	39.8%	16.6%	41.7%	23.7%	29.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	39.8%	16.6%	41.7%	23.7%	29.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	39.8%	16.6%	48.8%	23.7%	29.9%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	39.8%	16.6%	48.8%	23.7%	29.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	39.8%	16.6%	48.8%	23.7%	29.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	43.5%	16.6%	48.8%	23.7%	29.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	43.5%	16.6%	48.8%	23.7%	29.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	43.5%	16.6%	48.8%	23.7%	29.9%
2026-10-20T04:04:56+00:00	43.5%	16.6%	48.8%	23.7%	29.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	43.5%	16.6%	48.8%	23.7%	29.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	43.5%	16.6%	59.4%	23.7%	29.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	43.5%	16.6%	59.4%	23.7%	29.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	43.5%	16.6%	59.4%	23.7%	29.9%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	46.1%	16.6%	59.4%	23.7%	26.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	46.1%	16.6%	59.4%	23.7%	26.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	46.1%	16.6%	59.4%	23.7%	26.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00	46.1%	16.6%	59.4%	23.7%	26.8%
2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00	46.1%	24.9%	56.4%	33.0%	26.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	46.1%	24.9%	56.4%	33.0%	26.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	46.1%	24.9%	56.4%	33.0%	26.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	46.1%	24.9%	56.4%	33.0%	26.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	79.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	77.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	27%	77.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	25%	77.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	23%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	22%	77.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Wichita runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗