— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
nbm
23¢
wn2
14¢
aifs
10¢
icon
9¢
hres
5¢
eps
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F1¢
72–73°F5¢
74–75°F14¢
76–77°F24¢
78–79°F26¢
80–81°F18¢
82–83°F8¢
84–85°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KICT-20261022-TMAX-GE86 · opened 2026-10-17T15:25:04+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape