KICT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

14%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 7.1¢Risks 3.55u

EPSNO 92.9¢Risks 46.45u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.45u · EPS −46.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:25:04+00:00	11.7%	0.5%	17.8%	9.5%	14.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	11.7%	0.5%	17.8%	9.5%	14.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	11.7%	0.5%	19.1%	9.5%	14.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	11.7%	0.5%	19.1%	9.5%	14.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	11.7%	0.5%	19.1%	9.5%	14.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	11.7%	0.5%	19.1%	9.5%	14.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	10.5%	0.5%	19.1%	5.4%	9.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	10.5%	0.5%	19.1%	5.4%	9.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	10.5%	0.5%	19.1%	5.4%	9.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	10.5%	0.5%	19.1%	5.4%	9.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	10.5%	0.5%	13.7%	5.4%	9.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	10.5%	0.5%	13.7%	5.4%	9.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:26+00:00	10.5%	0.5%	13.7%	5.4%	9.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	10.5%	0.5%	13.7%	5.4%	9.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	10.5%	0.5%	13.7%	5.4%	9.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	10.5%	0.5%	13.7%	5.4%	9.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	10.5%	0.5%	13.7%	5.4%	9.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	86.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	81.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	79.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	9%	77.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	76.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	76.9°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261022-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 86°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗