— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
56¢
wn2
54¢
ndfd
53¢
icon
38¢
aifs
38¢
hres
32¢
eps
15¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F1¢
72–73°F5¢
74–75°F15¢
76–77°F27¢
78–79°F27¢
80–81°F17¢
82–83°F6¢
84–85°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KICT-20261023-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-10-17T04:42:04+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape