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KICT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
54%
ICON
38%
AIFS
38%
HRES
32%
EPS
15%
Consensus
40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 34.9¢Risks 34.85u
VS
EPSNO 65.1¢Risks 65.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +65.15u · EPS −65.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 39.7% · 2026-10-17T04:42:04+00:00AIFS Single: 39.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00AIFS Single: 39.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00AIFS Single: 39.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-17T07:44:41+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00AIFS Single: 38.4% · 2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00AIFS Single: 38.4% · 2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.8% · 2026-10-17T04:42:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.8% · 2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.8% · 2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.8% · 2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.8% · 2026-10-17T07:44:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.3% · 2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.4% · 2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-10-17T04:42:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-17T07:44:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.3% · 2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.3% · 2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.3% · 2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.3% · 2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.3% · 2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00IFS HRES: 32.7% · 2026-10-17T04:42:04+00:00IFS HRES: 32.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00IFS HRES: 32.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00IFS HRES: 32.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00IFS HRES: 31.9% · 2026-10-17T07:44:41+00:00IFS HRES: 31.9% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00IFS HRES: 31.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00IFS HRES: 31.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00IFS HRES: 31.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00IFS HRES: 31.9% · 2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:00IFS HRES: 31.9% · 2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00IFS HRES: 31.9% · 2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00IFS HRES: 32.2% · 2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00IFS HRES: 31.9% · 2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00ICON: 41.6% · 2026-10-17T04:42:04+00:00ICON: 41.6% · 2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:00ICON: 41.6% · 2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00ICON: 41.6% · 2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-17T07:44:41+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00ICON: 38.4% · 2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00ICON: 38.5% · 2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:0010-17 04:4210-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:42:04+00:0039.7%14.8%62.3%32.7%41.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:27+00:0039.7%14.8%60.8%32.7%41.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:0039.7%14.8%60.8%32.7%41.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:0039.7%14.8%60.8%32.7%41.6%
2026-10-17T07:44:41+00:0049.3%14.8%60.8%31.9%38.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:0049.3%14.8%60.8%31.9%38.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:0049.3%14.8%60.8%31.9%38.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:0049.3%14.8%60.8%31.9%38.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:0049.3%14.8%60.8%31.9%38.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:11+00:0049.3%15.3%54.3%31.9%38.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:0049.3%15.3%54.3%31.9%38.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:0049.3%15.3%54.3%31.9%38.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:0038.4%15.3%54.3%32.2%38.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:0038.4%15.4%54.3%31.9%38.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend56%82.0°F3.3°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 254%82.0°F4.7°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%82.0°F5.9°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending
ICON38%79.4°F7.2°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single38%79.9°F5.4°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS HRES32%78.4°F6.6°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble15%77.3°F4.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261023-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 82°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗