daily prop · Wichita, KS · Plains & South Central · settles Sat Oct 24

Wichita high ≥ 78°F · Sat Oct 24

45¢

american +124 · decimal 2.24

on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 78°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		63¢
ndfd		53¢
icon		53¢
aifs		52¢
nbm		46¢
eps		28¢
hres		27¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

68–69°F1¢

70–71°F4¢

72–73°F10¢

74–75°F18¢

76–77°F24¢

78–79°F22¢

80–81°F14¢

82–83°F6¢

84–85°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KICT-20261024-TMAX-GE78 · opened 2026-10-18T04:14:19+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape