KICT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

53%

52%

28%

27%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 44.6¢Risks 44.65u

HRESNO 55.4¢Risks 55.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +55.35u · HRES −55.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:19+00:00	47.9%	36.4%	57.0%	36.7%	34.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	47.9%	36.4%	65.9%	36.7%	34.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	47.9%	36.4%	65.9%	36.7%	34.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	47.9%	36.4%	65.9%	36.7%	34.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	47.9%	36.4%	65.9%	36.7%	34.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:30+00:00	52.2%	36.4%	65.9%	28.8%	58.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	52.2%	36.4%	65.9%	28.8%	58.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	52.2%	36.4%	65.9%	28.8%	58.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	52.2%	36.4%	65.9%	28.8%	58.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:53+00:00	52.2%	30.9%	64.2%	28.8%	58.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	52.2%	30.9%	64.2%	28.8%	58.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:48+00:00	52.2%	30.9%	64.2%	28.8%	58.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	52.2%	30.9%	64.2%	28.8%	58.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	52.9%	31.0%	64.2%	28.8%	58.3%
2026-10-18T14:55:59+00:00	52.9%	31.0%	64.2%	28.8%	58.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	52.9%	28.5%	64.2%	28.8%	58.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	52.9%	28.5%	64.2%	28.8%	58.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	52.9%	28.5%	65.8%	28.8%	58.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:31+00:00	52.9%	28.5%	65.8%	28.8%	58.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	52.9%	28.5%	65.8%	28.8%	58.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	49.3%	28.5%	65.8%	26.7%	52.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	49.3%	28.5%	65.8%	26.7%	52.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	49.3%	28.5%	65.8%	26.7%	52.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	49.3%	28.5%	65.8%	26.7%	52.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	49.3%	28.5%	65.8%	26.7%	52.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	49.3%	28.5%	62.6%	26.7%	52.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	49.3%	28.5%	62.6%	26.7%	52.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00	49.3%	28.5%	62.6%	26.7%	52.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	52.2%	28.5%	62.6%	26.7%	52.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	52.2%	28.5%	62.6%	26.7%	52.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	52.2%	28.5%	62.6%	26.7%	52.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	52.2%	28.5%	62.6%	26.7%	52.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	63%	79.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	78.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	53%	78.0°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	77.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	77.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	75.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	73.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261024-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 78°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗