daily prop · Indianapolis, IN · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Wed Oct 21

Indianapolis runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Wed Oct 21

2¢

american +4731 · decimal 48.31

on the tape

77°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 77°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		40¢
wn2		19¢
hres		7¢
eps		5¢
ndfd		4¢
rrfs		4¢
icon		2¢
nbm		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

64–65°F1¢

66–67°F5¢

68–69°F16¢

70–71°F29¢

72–73°F28¢

74–75°F15¢

76–77°F4¢

78–79°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KIND-20261021-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-14T10:33:29+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape