KIND / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

19%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 21.1¢Risks 21.05u

ICONNO 79.0¢Risks 78.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +78.95u · ICON −78.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:33:29+00:00	70.3%	12.3%	45.6%	24.4%	22.8%
2026-10-14T11:20:53+00:00	70.3%	5.2%	48.4%	24.4%	22.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	70.3%	5.2%	48.4%	24.4%	22.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	70.3%	5.2%	48.4%	24.4%	22.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	53.5%	5.2%	48.4%	24.4%	22.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	53.5%	5.2%	48.4%	24.4%	23.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:22+00:00	53.5%	5.8%	48.4%	24.4%	23.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	53.5%	5.8%	48.4%	24.4%	23.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	53.5%	5.8%	48.4%	24.4%	23.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	53.5%	5.8%	39.8%	24.4%	23.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	53.5%	5.8%	39.8%	24.4%	23.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	53.5%	5.8%	39.8%	24.4%	23.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	44.3%	5.8%	39.8%	7.3%	39.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	44.3%	5.8%	39.8%	7.3%	39.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	44.3%	5.8%	39.8%	7.3%	39.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	44.3%	5.8%	39.8%	7.3%	39.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	44.3%	5.8%	39.8%	7.3%	39.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	44.3%	5.8%	33.0%	7.3%	39.7%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	44.3%	5.8%	33.0%	7.3%	39.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	44.3%	5.8%	33.0%	7.3%	39.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	50.7%	5.8%	33.0%	7.3%	39.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	50.7%	5.8%	33.0%	7.3%	39.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	50.7%	5.8%	33.0%	7.3%	39.7%
2026-10-15T04:02:12+00:00	50.7%	5.8%	33.0%	7.3%	39.7%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	50.7%	5.8%	33.0%	7.3%	39.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	50.7%	5.8%	31.6%	7.3%	39.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	50.7%	5.8%	31.6%	7.3%	39.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	50.7%	5.8%	31.6%	7.3%	39.7%
2026-10-15T07:49:49+00:00	61.0%	5.8%	31.6%	11.2%	43.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	61.0%	5.8%	31.6%	11.2%	43.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	61.0%	5.8%	31.6%	11.2%	43.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00	61.0%	5.8%	31.6%	11.2%	43.3%
2026-10-15T10:53:03+00:00	61.0%	5.8%	31.6%	11.2%	43.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:25+00:00	61.0%	5.8%	36.6%	11.2%	43.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	61.0%	1.1%	36.6%	11.2%	43.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:23+00:00	61.0%	1.1%	36.6%	11.2%	43.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	48.5%	1.1%	36.6%	11.3%	43.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	48.5%	1.1%	36.6%	11.3%	43.3%
2026-10-15T15:34:15+00:00	48.5%	1.2%	36.6%	11.3%	43.3%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	48.5%	1.2%	36.6%	11.3%	43.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	48.5%	1.2%	39.9%	11.3%	43.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	48.5%	1.2%	39.9%	11.3%	43.3%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	48.5%	1.2%	39.9%	11.3%	43.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	48.5%	1.2%	39.9%	11.3%	43.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	63.8%	1.2%	39.9%	19.4%	36.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	63.8%	1.2%	39.9%	19.4%	36.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	63.8%	1.2%	39.9%	19.4%	36.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	63.8%	1.2%	39.9%	19.4%	36.2%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	63.8%	1.2%	32.6%	19.4%	36.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	63.8%	1.2%	32.6%	19.4%	36.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	63.8%	1.2%	32.6%	19.4%	36.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	55.2%	1.2%	32.6%	19.4%	36.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	55.2%	1.2%	32.6%	19.4%	36.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	55.2%	1.2%	32.6%	19.4%	36.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	55.2%	1.2%	32.6%	19.4%	36.3%
2026-10-16T04:24:13+00:00	55.2%	1.2%	32.6%	19.4%	36.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	55.2%	1.2%	33.4%	19.4%	36.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	55.2%	1.2%	33.4%	19.4%	36.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	55.2%	1.2%	33.4%	19.4%	36.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	61.1%	1.2%	33.4%	19.4%	21.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	61.1%	1.2%	33.4%	19.4%	21.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	61.1%	1.2%	33.4%	19.4%	21.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	61.1%	1.2%	33.4%	19.4%	21.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	61.1%	1.2%	33.4%	19.4%	21.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:19+00:00	61.1%	0.5%	34.0%	19.4%	21.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	61.1%	0.5%	34.0%	19.4%	21.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	61.1%	0.5%	34.0%	19.4%	21.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:36+00:00	51.6%	0.5%	34.0%	9.4%	21.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	51.6%	0.5%	34.0%	9.4%	21.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:33+00:00	51.6%	0.5%	34.0%	9.4%	21.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	51.6%	0.5%	34.0%	9.4%	21.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	51.6%	0.5%	34.0%	9.4%	21.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	51.6%	0.5%	28.8%	9.4%	21.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	51.6%	0.5%	28.8%	9.4%	21.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	51.6%	0.5%	28.8%	9.4%	21.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:03+00:00	46.8%	0.5%	28.8%	9.4%	15.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:31+00:00	46.8%	0.5%	28.8%	9.4%	15.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	46.8%	0.5%	28.8%	9.4%	15.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	46.8%	0.5%	28.8%	9.4%	15.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	46.8%	0.5%	28.8%	15.8%	15.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	46.8%	0.5%	34.9%	15.8%	15.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	46.8%	0.5%	34.9%	15.8%	15.9%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	46.8%	0.5%	34.9%	15.8%	15.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	47.6%	0.5%	34.9%	15.8%	15.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	47.6%	0.5%	34.9%	15.8%	15.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	47.6%	0.5%	34.9%	15.8%	15.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	47.6%	0.5%	34.9%	15.8%	15.9%
2026-10-17T04:41:52+00:00	47.6%	0.5%	34.9%	15.8%	15.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	47.6%	0.5%	34.0%	15.8%	15.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	47.6%	0.5%	34.0%	15.8%	15.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	47.6%	0.5%	34.0%	15.8%	15.9%
2026-10-17T07:44:32+00:00	41.4%	0.5%	34.0%	7.8%	4.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	41.4%	0.5%	34.0%	7.8%	4.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00	41.4%	0.5%	34.0%	7.8%	4.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	41.4%	0.5%	34.0%	7.8%	4.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	41.4%	0.5%	34.0%	7.8%	4.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	41.4%	1.0%	31.4%	7.8%	4.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	41.4%	1.0%	31.4%	7.8%	4.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	41.4%	1.0%	31.4%	7.8%	4.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	32.3%	1.0%	31.4%	7.8%	4.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	32.4%	1.0%	31.5%	7.8%	4.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:50+00:00	32.4%	0.9%	31.5%	7.8%	4.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	32.4%	0.9%	31.5%	7.8%	4.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	32.4%	0.9%	30.5%	7.8%	4.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	32.4%	0.9%	30.5%	7.8%	4.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	32.4%	0.9%	30.5%	7.8%	4.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	32.4%	0.9%	30.5%	7.8%	4.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	24.3%	0.9%	30.5%	5.7%	2.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	24.3%	0.9%	30.5%	5.7%	2.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	24.3%	0.9%	30.5%	5.7%	2.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	24.3%	0.9%	30.5%	5.7%	2.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	24.3%	0.9%	19.5%	5.7%	2.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	24.3%	0.9%	19.5%	5.7%	2.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	24.3%	0.9%	19.5%	5.7%	2.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	24.3%	0.9%	19.5%	5.7%	2.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	25.7%	0.9%	19.5%	5.7%	2.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	25.7%	0.9%	19.5%	5.7%	2.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	25.7%	0.9%	19.5%	5.7%	2.1%
2026-10-18T04:14:07+00:00	25.7%	0.9%	19.5%	5.7%	2.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	25.7%	0.9%	18.8%	5.7%	2.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	25.7%	0.9%	18.8%	5.7%	2.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	25.7%	0.9%	18.8%	5.7%	2.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	25.7%	0.9%	18.8%	5.7%	2.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:00	24.9%	0.9%	18.8%	3.7%	0.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	24.9%	0.9%	18.8%	3.7%	0.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	24.9%	0.9%	18.8%	3.7%	0.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	24.9%	0.9%	18.8%	3.7%	0.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:00	32.9%	2.3%	21.0%	5.1%	3.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	32.9%	2.3%	21.0%	5.1%	3.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	32.9%	2.3%	21.0%	5.1%	3.4%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	32.0%	2.3%	21.0%	5.1%	3.4%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	31.9%	2.3%	21.0%	5.1%	3.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:34+00:00	31.9%	2.4%	21.0%	5.1%	3.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	31.9%	2.4%	21.0%	5.1%	3.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	31.9%	2.4%	21.0%	5.1%	3.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	31.9%	2.4%	13.6%	5.1%	3.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	31.9%	2.4%	13.6%	5.1%	3.4%
2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00	31.9%	2.4%	13.6%	5.1%	3.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	36.4%	2.4%	13.6%	5.4%	1.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	36.4%	2.4%	13.6%	5.4%	1.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00	36.4%	2.4%	13.6%	5.4%	1.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	36.4%	2.4%	13.6%	5.4%	1.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	36.4%	2.4%	13.6%	5.4%	1.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	36.4%	2.4%	17.5%	5.4%	1.9%
2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00	36.4%	2.4%	17.5%	5.4%	1.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	36.4%	2.4%	17.5%	5.4%	1.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	42.2%	2.4%	17.5%	5.4%	1.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	42.2%	2.4%	17.5%	5.4%	1.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	42.2%	2.4%	17.5%	5.4%	1.9%
2026-10-20T04:04:39+00:00	42.2%	2.4%	17.5%	5.4%	1.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	42.2%	2.4%	17.5%	5.4%	1.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	42.2%	2.4%	27.0%	5.4%	1.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	42.2%	2.4%	27.0%	5.4%	1.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	42.2%	2.4%	27.0%	5.4%	1.9%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00	40.0%	2.4%	27.0%	5.4%	2.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	40.0%	2.4%	27.0%	5.4%	2.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	40.0%	2.4%	27.0%	5.4%	2.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	40.0%	2.4%	27.0%	5.4%	2.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:43+00:00	40.0%	4.9%	18.6%	6.6%	2.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	40.0%	4.9%	18.6%	6.6%	2.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	40.0%	4.9%	18.6%	6.6%	2.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	40.0%	4.9%	18.6%	6.6%	2.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00	39.9%	4.9%	18.6%	6.6%	2.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	40%	75.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	19%	73.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	70.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	70.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	2%	69.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗