— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
aifs
34¢
wn2
30¢
nbm
13¢
hres
12¢
icon
5¢
eps
4¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F2¢
66–67°F7¢
68–69°F17¢
70–71°F27¢
72–73°F26¢
74–75°F15¢
76–77°F5¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KIND-20261022-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-16T04:24:13+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape