KIND / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST13%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

30%

12%

Consensus

13%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 19.1¢Risks 19.05u

EPSNO 81.0¢Risks 80.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +80.95u · EPS −80.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:13+00:00	74.7%	17.8%	70.2%	29.3%	58.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	74.7%	17.8%	68.9%	29.3%	58.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	74.7%	17.8%	68.9%	29.3%	58.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	74.7%	17.8%	68.9%	29.3%	58.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	79.3%	17.8%	68.9%	29.3%	30.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	79.3%	17.8%	68.9%	29.3%	30.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	79.3%	17.8%	68.9%	29.3%	30.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	79.3%	17.8%	68.9%	29.3%	30.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	79.3%	17.8%	68.9%	29.3%	30.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:19+00:00	79.3%	6.0%	72.6%	29.3%	30.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	79.3%	6.0%	72.6%	29.3%	30.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	79.3%	6.0%	72.6%	29.3%	30.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:36+00:00	74.8%	6.0%	72.6%	12.2%	30.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	74.7%	6.1%	72.6%	12.2%	30.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:33+00:00	74.7%	6.3%	72.6%	12.2%	30.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	74.7%	6.3%	72.6%	12.2%	30.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	74.7%	6.3%	72.6%	12.2%	30.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	74.7%	6.3%	76.7%	12.2%	30.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	74.7%	6.3%	76.7%	12.2%	30.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	74.7%	6.3%	76.7%	12.2%	30.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:03+00:00	63.0%	6.3%	76.7%	12.2%	28.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:31+00:00	63.0%	6.3%	76.7%	12.2%	28.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	63.0%	6.3%	76.7%	12.2%	28.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	63.0%	6.3%	76.7%	12.2%	28.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	63.0%	6.3%	76.7%	30.3%	28.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	63.0%	6.3%	71.1%	30.3%	28.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	63.0%	6.3%	71.1%	30.3%	28.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	63.0%	6.3%	71.1%	30.3%	28.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	68.5%	6.3%	71.1%	30.3%	28.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	68.5%	6.3%	71.1%	30.3%	28.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	68.5%	6.3%	71.1%	30.3%	28.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	68.5%	6.3%	71.1%	30.3%	28.3%
2026-10-17T04:41:52+00:00	68.5%	6.3%	71.1%	30.3%	28.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	68.5%	6.3%	66.6%	30.3%	28.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	68.5%	6.3%	66.6%	30.3%	28.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	68.5%	6.3%	66.6%	30.3%	28.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:32+00:00	53.2%	6.3%	66.6%	21.8%	16.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	53.2%	6.3%	66.6%	21.8%	16.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00	53.2%	6.3%	66.6%	21.8%	16.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	53.2%	6.3%	66.6%	21.8%	16.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	53.2%	6.3%	66.6%	21.8%	16.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	53.2%	12.2%	58.7%	21.8%	16.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	53.2%	12.2%	58.7%	21.8%	16.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	53.2%	12.2%	58.7%	21.8%	16.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	47.6%	12.2%	58.7%	21.8%	16.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	47.6%	12.2%	58.7%	21.9%	16.8%
2026-10-18T04:14:07+00:00	38.1%	11.5%	35.8%	13.1%	6.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	38.1%	11.5%	38.5%	13.1%	6.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	38.1%	11.5%	38.5%	13.1%	6.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	38.1%	11.5%	38.5%	13.1%	6.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	38.1%	11.5%	38.5%	13.1%	6.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:00	37.2%	11.5%	38.5%	11.5%	4.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	37.2%	11.5%	38.5%	11.5%	4.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	37.2%	11.5%	38.5%	11.5%	4.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	37.2%	11.5%	38.5%	11.5%	4.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:48+00:00	37.2%	4.2%	30.5%	11.5%	4.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	37.2%	4.2%	30.5%	11.5%	4.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:45+00:00	37.2%	4.2%	30.5%	11.5%	4.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	37.2%	4.2%	30.5%	11.5%	4.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	33.9%	4.2%	30.5%	11.5%	4.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	72.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	72.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	68.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	66.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	69.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗