daily prop · Indianapolis, IN · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Thu Oct 22

Indianapolis runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Thu Oct 22

7¢

american +1397 · decimal 14.97

on the tape

76°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 76°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		45¢
wn2		34¢
ndfd		10¢
hres		9¢
rrfs		8¢
eps		8¢
nbm		4¢
icon		2¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

64–65°F2¢

66–67°F7¢

68–69°F17¢

70–71°F27¢

72–73°F26¢

74–75°F15¢

76–77°F5¢

78–79°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KIND-20261022-TMAX-GE76 · opened 2026-10-15T07:49:50+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape