KIND / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

45%

34%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 23.5¢Risks 23.45u

ICONNO 76.5¢Risks 76.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +76.55u · ICON −76.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:50+00:00	80.3%	20.7%	61.6%	16.0%	22.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	80.3%	20.7%	61.6%	16.0%	22.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	80.3%	20.7%	61.6%	16.0%	22.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00	80.3%	20.7%	61.6%	16.0%	22.8%
2026-10-15T10:53:03+00:00	80.3%	20.7%	61.6%	16.0%	22.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:25+00:00	80.3%	20.7%	59.5%	16.0%	22.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	80.3%	11.8%	59.5%	16.0%	22.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:23+00:00	80.3%	11.8%	59.5%	16.0%	22.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	76.9%	11.8%	59.3%	16.3%	22.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	76.9%	11.8%	59.3%	16.3%	22.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:15+00:00	76.9%	11.9%	59.3%	16.3%	22.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	76.9%	11.9%	59.3%	16.3%	22.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	76.9%	11.9%	63.1%	16.3%	22.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	76.9%	11.9%	63.1%	16.3%	22.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	76.9%	11.9%	63.1%	16.3%	22.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	76.9%	11.9%	63.1%	16.3%	22.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	78.0%	11.9%	63.1%	24.1%	54.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	78.0%	11.9%	63.1%	24.1%	54.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	78.0%	11.9%	63.1%	24.1%	54.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	78.0%	11.9%	63.1%	24.1%	54.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	78.0%	11.9%	63.1%	24.1%	54.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	78.0%	11.9%	63.1%	24.2%	54.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	78.0%	11.9%	63.1%	24.2%	54.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	68.8%	11.9%	63.1%	24.2%	54.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	68.8%	11.9%	63.1%	24.2%	54.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	68.8%	11.9%	63.1%	24.2%	54.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	68.8%	11.9%	63.1%	24.2%	54.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:52+00:00	26.4%	1.9%	21.8%	8.1%	3.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	26.4%	1.4%	21.8%	8.1%	3.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	26.4%	1.4%	21.8%	8.1%	3.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	26.4%	1.4%	20.3%	8.1%	3.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	26.4%	1.4%	20.3%	8.1%	3.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	26.4%	1.4%	20.3%	8.1%	3.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	23.6%	1.4%	20.3%	5.3%	3.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	23.6%	1.4%	20.3%	5.3%	3.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	23.6%	1.4%	20.3%	5.3%	3.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	23.6%	1.4%	20.3%	5.3%	3.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	23.6%	1.4%	20.3%	5.3%	3.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	23.6%	1.4%	18.8%	5.3%	3.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:53+00:00	23.6%	1.4%	18.8%	5.3%	3.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	23.6%	1.4%	18.8%	5.3%	3.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	22.9%	1.4%	18.8%	5.3%	3.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	22.9%	1.4%	18.8%	5.3%	3.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	22.9%	1.4%	18.8%	5.3%	3.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	22.9%	1.4%	18.8%	5.3%	3.6%
2026-10-19T04:30:54+00:00	22.9%	1.4%	18.8%	5.3%	3.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	22.9%	1.4%	22.6%	5.3%	3.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	22.9%	1.4%	22.6%	5.3%	3.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	22.9%	1.4%	22.6%	5.3%	3.6%
2026-10-19T07:33:14+00:00	27.9%	1.4%	22.6%	7.3%	5.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	27.9%	1.4%	22.6%	7.3%	5.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	27.9%	1.4%	22.6%	7.3%	5.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	27.9%	1.4%	22.6%	7.3%	5.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00	27.9%	1.4%	22.6%	7.3%	5.4%
2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:00	27.9%	3.3%	27.6%	7.3%	5.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	27.9%	3.3%	27.6%	7.3%	5.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	27.9%	3.3%	27.6%	7.3%	5.4%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	28.7%	3.3%	27.6%	7.3%	5.4%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	28.7%	3.3%	27.6%	7.3%	5.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:34+00:00	28.7%	3.6%	27.6%	7.3%	5.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	28.7%	3.6%	27.6%	7.3%	5.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	28.7%	3.6%	27.6%	7.3%	5.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	28.7%	3.6%	18.6%	7.3%	5.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	28.7%	3.6%	18.6%	7.3%	5.4%
2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00	28.7%	3.6%	18.6%	7.3%	5.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	33.6%	3.6%	18.6%	8.6%	3.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	33.6%	3.6%	18.6%	8.6%	3.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00	33.6%	3.6%	18.6%	8.6%	3.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	33.6%	3.6%	18.6%	8.6%	3.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	33.6%	3.6%	18.6%	8.6%	3.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	33.6%	3.6%	23.8%	8.6%	3.8%
2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00	33.6%	3.6%	23.8%	8.6%	3.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	33.6%	3.6%	23.8%	8.6%	3.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	41.6%	3.6%	23.8%	8.6%	3.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	41.6%	3.6%	23.8%	8.6%	3.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	41.6%	3.6%	23.8%	8.6%	3.8%
2026-10-20T04:04:39+00:00	41.6%	3.6%	23.8%	8.6%	3.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	41.6%	3.6%	23.8%	8.6%	3.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	41.6%	3.6%	36.0%	8.6%	3.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	41.6%	3.6%	36.0%	8.6%	3.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	41.6%	3.6%	36.0%	8.6%	3.8%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00	45.1%	3.6%	36.0%	8.6%	1.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	45.1%	3.6%	36.0%	8.6%	1.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	45.1%	3.6%	36.0%	8.6%	1.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	45.1%	3.6%	36.0%	8.6%	1.8%
2026-10-20T10:53:43+00:00	45.1%	8.0%	33.7%	9.0%	1.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	45.1%	8.0%	33.7%	9.0%	1.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	45.1%	8.0%	33.7%	9.0%	1.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	45.1%	8.0%	33.7%	9.0%	1.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	45%	75.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	74.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	70.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	70.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	4%	70.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	2%	68.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261022-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗