daily prop · Las Vegas, NV · West Coast & Southwest · settles Tue Oct 27

Las Vegas runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Tue Oct 27

4¢

american +2632 · decimal 27.32

on the tape

85°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 85°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		23¢
hres		18¢
eps		4¢
wn2		3¢
icon		3¢
nbm		3¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

64–65°F1¢

66–67°F2¢

68–69°F5¢

70–71°F9¢

72–73°F13¢

74–75°F16¢

76–77°F16¢

78–79°F14¢

80–81°F10¢

82–83°F6¢

84–85°F3¢

86–87°F2¢

88–89°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,387 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.601 vs climatology 8.75.

Receipts

prop id WP-KLAS-20261027-TMAX-GE85 · opened 2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape