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KLAS / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
23%
HRES
18%
EPS
4%
WN2
3%
ICON
3%
Consensus
4%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 13.1¢Risks 13.10u
VS
ICONNO 86.9¢Risks 86.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +86.90u · ICON −86.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 23.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.1% · 2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.4% · 2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 18.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00ICON: 3.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:00ICON: 3.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00ICON: 3.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 3.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:0010-20 10:5410-20 12:2410-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:0023.2%4.1%3.4%18.4%3.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:0023.2%4.1%3.4%18.4%3.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:0023.2%4.1%3.4%18.4%3.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:0023.2%4.1%3.4%18.4%3.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single23%80.3°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES18%78.7°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble4%75.8°F5.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 23%75.2°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON3%65.6°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend3%74.0°F5.5°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261027-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗