daily prop · Los Angeles, CA · West Coast & Southwest · settles Sun Oct 18

Los Angeles runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Sun Oct 18

35¢

american +183 · decimal 2.83

on the tape

85°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 85°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		78¢
icon		66¢
rrfs		58¢
hres		44¢
eps		41¢
wn2		34¢
nbm		25¢
ndfd		12¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

76–77°F1¢

78–79°F4¢

80–81°F11¢

82–83°F20¢

84–85°F24¢

86–87°F21¢

88–89°F12¢

90–91°F5¢

92–93°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,205 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.906 vs climatology 8.875.

Receipts

prop id WP-KLAX-20261018-TMAX-GE85 · opened 2026-10-11T07:32:45+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape