KLAX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

66%

44%

41%

34%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.2¢Risks 56.20u

WN2NO 43.8¢Risks 43.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.80u · WN2 −43.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:45+00:00	87.1%	37.7%	60.4%	44.4%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00	87.1%	37.7%	60.4%	44.4%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:13+00:00	87.1%	37.7%	60.4%	44.4%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:18+00:00	87.1%	37.7%	60.4%	44.4%	—
2026-10-11T10:34:23+00:00	87.1%	37.7%	60.4%	44.4%	—
2026-10-11T11:20:17+00:00	87.1%	36.1%	74.2%	44.4%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	87.1%	36.1%	74.2%	44.4%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	87.1%	36.1%	74.2%	44.4%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:57+00:00	85.9%	36.1%	74.2%	44.4%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	85.8%	36.1%	74.1%	44.4%	—
2026-10-11T15:12:15+00:00	85.8%	35.3%	74.1%	44.4%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	85.8%	35.3%	74.1%	44.4%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:28+00:00	85.8%	35.3%	74.1%	44.4%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	85.8%	35.3%	77.3%	44.4%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:14+00:00	85.8%	35.3%	77.3%	44.4%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	85.8%	35.3%	77.3%	44.4%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:35+00:00	77.9%	35.3%	77.3%	58.1%	85.7%
2026-10-11T20:28:42+00:00	77.9%	35.3%	77.3%	58.1%	85.7%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	77.9%	35.3%	77.3%	58.1%	85.7%
2026-10-11T21:59:03+00:00	77.9%	35.3%	77.3%	58.1%	85.7%
2026-10-11T22:44:17+00:00	77.9%	35.3%	77.3%	58.1%	85.7%
2026-10-11T23:29:38+00:00	77.9%	35.3%	54.0%	58.1%	85.7%
2026-10-12T00:14:48+00:00	77.9%	35.3%	54.0%	58.1%	85.7%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	77.9%	35.3%	54.0%	58.1%	85.7%
2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00	77.9%	35.3%	54.0%	58.1%	85.7%
2026-10-12T02:30:32+00:00	77.9%	35.3%	54.0%	58.1%	85.7%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	77.9%	35.3%	54.0%	58.1%	85.7%
2026-10-18T04:14:53+00:00	78.4%	41.0%	39.2%	43.6%	66.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	78.4%	41.0%	34.0%	43.6%	66.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	78.4%	41.0%	34.0%	43.6%	66.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	78.4%	41.0%	34.0%	43.6%	66.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	78.4%	41.0%	34.0%	43.6%	66.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	78%	87.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	66%	86.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	83.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	83.4°F	4.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	83.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	83.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	12%	82.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261018-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗