daily prop · Los Angeles, CA · West Coast & Southwest · settles Tue Oct 20

Los Angeles runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Tue Oct 20

2¢

american +5487 · decimal 55.87

on the tape

85°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 85°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		35¢
icon		25¢
eps		11¢
rrfs		2¢
hres		2¢
wn2		2¢
nbm		1¢
ndfd		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

72–73°F3¢

74–75°F12¢

76–77°F26¢

78–79°F30¢

80–81°F19¢

82–83°F7¢

84–85°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,459 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.516 vs climatology 8.861.

Receipts

prop id WP-KLAX-20261020-TMAX-GE85 · opened 2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape