WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KLAX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
35%
ICON
25%
EPS
11%
HRES
2%
WN2
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 18.1¢Risks 18.10u
VS
HRESNO 81.9¢Risks 81.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +81.90u · HRES −81.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-13T22:28:27+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00AIFS Single: 41.7% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00AIFS Single: 40.3% · 2026-10-18T08:01:55+00:00AIFS Single: 40.3% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00AIFS Single: 40.3% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00AIFS Single: 40.3% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00AIFS Single: 40.3% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00AIFS Single: 40.3% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00AIFS Single: 40.3% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00AIFS Single: 40.3% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00AIFS Single: 34.7% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00AIFS Single: 34.7% · 2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.4% · 2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.4% · 2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.4% · 2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.4% · 2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.4% · 2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.9% · 2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.9% · 2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.9% · 2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.9% · 2026-10-13T22:28:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.5% · 2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.4% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.4% · 2026-10-18T08:01:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.4% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.3% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.3% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.3% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.1% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.1% · 2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T22:28:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T08:01:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:00IFS HRES: 9.5% · 2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00IFS HRES: 9.5% · 2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00IFS HRES: 9.5% · 2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00IFS HRES: 9.5% · 2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00IFS HRES: 9.5% · 2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00IFS HRES: 9.5% · 2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00IFS HRES: 9.5% · 2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00IFS HRES: 9.5% · 2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00IFS HRES: 9.5% · 2026-10-13T22:28:27+00:00IFS HRES: 25.7% · 2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00IFS HRES: 2.2% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00IFS HRES: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T08:01:55+00:00IFS HRES: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00IFS HRES: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS HRES: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00IFS HRES: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00IFS HRES: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00IFS HRES: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00IFS HRES: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS HRES: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00IFS HRES: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:00ICON: 4.2% · 2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00ICON: 4.2% · 2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00ICON: 4.2% · 2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00ICON: 4.3% · 2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00ICON: 4.3% · 2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00ICON: 45.2% · 2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00ICON: 45.2% · 2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00ICON: 45.2% · 2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00ICON: 45.2% · 2026-10-13T22:28:27+00:00ICON: 15.4% · 2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00ICON: 24.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-18T08:01:55+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:0010-13 11:5010-18 07:1510-18 14:56
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:004.7%13.4%2.1%9.5%4.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:004.7%13.4%2.1%9.5%4.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:004.7%13.4%2.1%9.5%4.2%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:006.3%13.4%2.1%9.5%4.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:006.3%13.4%2.1%9.5%4.3%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:004.4%12.9%1.7%9.5%45.2%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:004.4%12.9%1.7%9.5%45.2%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:004.4%12.9%1.7%9.5%45.2%
2026-10-13T22:28:27+00:004.4%12.9%1.7%9.5%45.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:004.4%17.5%1.3%25.7%15.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:0041.7%11.4%1.4%2.2%24.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:55+00:0040.3%11.4%1.4%1.5%24.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:0040.3%11.4%1.4%1.5%24.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:0040.3%11.4%1.4%1.5%24.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:0040.3%11.4%1.4%1.5%24.9%
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:0040.3%11.4%1.4%1.5%24.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:0040.3%10.3%1.5%1.5%24.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:0040.3%10.3%1.5%1.5%24.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:0040.3%10.3%1.5%1.5%24.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:0034.7%11.1%1.5%1.5%25.0%
2026-10-18T14:56:12+00:0034.7%11.1%1.5%1.5%25.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single35%82.9°F4.1°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
ICON25%82.1°F3.6°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble11%79.3°F4.3°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES2%75.6°F4.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%77.8°F3.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend1%75.0°F4.3°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
NWS forecast<1%75.0°F3.4°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261020-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 13 · 11:50 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗