— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
94¢
hrrr
92¢
aifs
84¢
eps
73¢
hres
66¢
icon
60¢
ndfd
56¢
rrfs
49¢
nbm
41¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
50–51°F2¢
52–53°F5¢
54–55°F12¢
56–57°F21¢
58–59°F24¢
60–61°F19¢
62–63°F11¢
64–65°F4¢
66–67°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,203 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.906 vs climatology 8.873.
Receipts
prop id WP-KLGA-20261018-TMAX-GE57 · opened 2026-10-11T07:31:30+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape