KLGA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

84%

73%

66%

60%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.2¢Risks 77.20u

ICONNO 22.8¢Risks 22.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.80u · ICON −22.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:31:30+00:00	22.5%	81.2%	73.9%	83.2%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00	22.5%	81.2%	73.9%	83.2%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:05+00:00	22.5%	81.2%	73.9%	83.2%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00	22.5%	81.2%	73.9%	83.2%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:25+00:00	22.5%	81.2%	73.9%	83.2%	—
2026-10-12T15:26:26+00:00	72.0%	67.7%	85.3%	85.7%	88.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:53+00:00	72.0%	65.5%	85.3%	85.7%	88.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00	72.0%	65.8%	85.3%	85.7%	88.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:10+00:00	72.0%	65.8%	91.3%	85.7%	88.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:17+00:00	72.0%	65.8%	91.3%	85.7%	88.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:23+00:00	72.0%	65.8%	91.3%	85.7%	88.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:00	84.5%	65.8%	91.3%	74.9%	76.6%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	84.5%	65.8%	91.3%	74.9%	76.6%
2026-10-12T21:28:47+00:00	84.5%	65.8%	91.3%	74.9%	76.6%
2026-10-12T22:13:54+00:00	84.5%	65.8%	91.3%	74.9%	76.6%
2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00	84.5%	65.8%	92.3%	74.9%	76.6%
2026-10-12T23:44:15+00:00	84.5%	65.8%	92.3%	74.9%	76.6%
2026-10-13T00:29:21+00:00	84.5%	65.8%	92.3%	74.9%	76.6%
2026-10-13T01:14:37+00:00	84.5%	65.8%	92.3%	74.9%	76.6%
2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00	85.8%	65.8%	92.3%	74.9%	76.6%
2026-10-13T02:44:53+00:00	85.8%	65.8%	92.3%	74.9%	76.6%
2026-10-13T03:29:59+00:00	85.8%	65.8%	92.3%	74.9%	76.6%
2026-10-13T04:15:09+00:00	85.8%	65.8%	92.3%	74.9%	76.6%
2026-10-13T05:01:41+00:00	85.8%	65.8%	92.3%	74.9%	76.6%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	85.8%	65.8%	91.6%	74.9%	76.6%
2026-10-13T06:31:58+00:00	85.8%	65.8%	91.6%	74.9%	76.6%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	85.8%	65.8%	91.6%	74.9%	76.6%
2026-10-13T08:02:27+00:00	76.8%	65.8%	91.6%	65.5%	91.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:37+00:00	76.8%	65.8%	91.6%	65.5%	91.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	76.8%	65.8%	91.6%	65.5%	91.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:49+00:00	76.8%	65.8%	91.6%	65.5%	91.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:04+00:00	76.8%	65.8%	91.6%	65.5%	91.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:31+00:00	76.8%	64.8%	82.4%	65.5%	91.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	76.8%	64.8%	82.4%	65.5%	91.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:52+00:00	76.8%	64.8%	82.4%	65.5%	91.8%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	66.4%	64.8%	82.2%	65.5%	91.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:01+00:00	66.4%	64.8%	82.2%	65.5%	91.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:11+00:00	66.4%	64.8%	82.2%	65.5%	91.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	66.4%	64.8%	82.2%	65.3%	91.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:07+00:00	66.4%	64.8%	80.9%	65.3%	91.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	66.4%	64.8%	80.9%	65.3%	91.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	66.4%	64.8%	80.9%	65.3%	91.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	66.4%	64.8%	80.9%	65.3%	91.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:31+00:00	65.7%	64.8%	80.9%	65.3%	93.2%
2026-10-13T20:57:40+00:00	65.7%	64.8%	80.9%	65.3%	93.2%
2026-10-13T21:42:47+00:00	65.7%	64.8%	80.9%	65.3%	93.2%
2026-10-13T22:28:21+00:00	65.7%	64.8%	80.9%	65.3%	93.2%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	65.7%	65.1%	84.7%	60.8%	93.2%
2026-10-13T23:58:41+00:00	65.7%	65.1%	84.6%	60.9%	93.2%
2026-10-14T00:43:50+00:00	65.7%	65.1%	84.6%	60.9%	93.2%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	49.2%	65.1%	84.6%	60.9%	93.2%
2026-10-14T02:14:15+00:00	49.2%	65.1%	84.6%	60.9%	93.2%
2026-10-14T02:59:23+00:00	49.2%	65.1%	84.6%	60.9%	93.2%
2026-10-15T04:47:48+00:00	71.4%	45.8%	90.6%	29.5%	63.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:14+00:00	71.4%	45.8%	94.1%	29.5%	63.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	71.4%	45.8%	94.1%	29.5%	63.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00	71.4%	45.8%	94.1%	29.5%	63.0%
2026-10-15T07:48:47+00:00	73.5%	45.8%	94.1%	32.7%	71.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	73.5%	45.8%	94.1%	32.7%	71.0%
2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00	73.5%	45.8%	94.1%	32.7%	71.0%
2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00	73.5%	45.8%	94.1%	32.7%	71.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00	73.5%	45.8%	94.1%	32.7%	71.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:01+00:00	73.5%	45.8%	93.1%	32.7%	71.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00	73.5%	51.0%	93.1%	32.7%	71.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:00+00:00	73.5%	51.0%	93.1%	32.7%	71.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:45+00:00	81.8%	51.0%	93.1%	32.7%	71.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	81.9%	51.0%	93.1%	32.7%	71.0%
2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:00	81.9%	54.1%	93.1%	32.7%	71.0%
2026-10-15T16:19:51+00:00	81.9%	54.1%	93.1%	32.7%	71.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:18+00:00	81.9%	54.1%	96.7%	32.7%	71.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:31+00:00	81.9%	54.1%	96.7%	32.7%	71.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:50+00:00	81.9%	54.1%	96.7%	32.7%	71.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:04+00:00	81.9%	54.1%	96.7%	32.7%	71.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	80.0%	54.1%	96.7%	50.9%	76.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	80.0%	54.1%	96.7%	50.9%	76.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	80.0%	54.1%	96.7%	50.9%	76.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	80.0%	54.1%	96.7%	50.9%	76.7%
2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00	80.0%	54.1%	94.5%	50.9%	76.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:11+00:00	80.0%	54.1%	94.5%	50.9%	76.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	80.0%	54.1%	94.5%	50.9%	76.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00	75.1%	54.1%	94.5%	50.9%	76.7%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	75.1%	54.1%	94.5%	50.9%	76.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:23+00:00	75.1%	54.1%	94.5%	50.9%	76.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	75.1%	54.1%	94.5%	50.9%	76.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:05+00:00	80.5%	45.5%	89.0%	50.0%	67.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:52+00:00	80.5%	45.5%	89.0%	50.0%	67.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:02+00:00	80.5%	45.5%	89.0%	50.0%	67.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	80.5%	45.5%	93.5%	50.0%	67.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:00	80.5%	45.5%	93.5%	50.0%	67.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:40+00:00	80.5%	45.5%	93.5%	50.0%	67.4%
2026-10-16T19:36:47+00:00	77.7%	45.5%	93.5%	50.0%	64.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:20+00:00	77.7%	45.5%	93.5%	50.0%	64.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:43+00:00	77.7%	45.5%	93.5%	50.0%	64.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	77.7%	45.5%	93.5%	50.0%	64.3%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	77.7%	45.5%	93.5%	58.7%	64.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:13+00:00	77.7%	45.5%	91.7%	58.7%	64.3%
2026-10-17T00:08:44+00:00	77.7%	45.5%	91.7%	58.7%	64.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	77.7%	45.5%	91.7%	58.7%	64.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:02+00:00	82.5%	45.5%	91.7%	58.7%	64.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	82.5%	45.5%	91.7%	58.7%	64.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	82.5%	45.5%	91.7%	58.7%	64.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:34+00:00	82.5%	45.5%	91.7%	58.7%	64.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:24+00:00	82.6%	73.0%	94.7%	59.6%	55.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:28+00:00	82.6%	73.0%	94.7%	59.6%	55.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:36+00:00	82.6%	73.0%	94.7%	59.6%	55.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	82.6%	73.0%	96.6%	59.6%	55.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:53+00:00	82.6%	73.0%	96.6%	59.6%	55.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	82.6%	73.0%	96.6%	59.6%	55.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:07+00:00	79.2%	73.0%	96.6%	65.7%	60.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:24+00:00	79.2%	73.0%	96.6%	65.7%	60.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	79.2%	73.0%	96.6%	65.7%	60.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:41+00:00	79.2%	73.0%	96.6%	65.7%	60.1%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	79.2%	73.0%	96.6%	65.7%	60.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:08+00:00	79.2%	72.9%	94.3%	65.7%	60.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:20+00:00	79.2%	72.9%	94.3%	65.7%	60.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:36+00:00	79.2%	72.9%	94.3%	65.7%	60.1%
2026-10-18T01:57:59+00:00	84.5%	72.9%	94.3%	65.7%	60.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:17+00:00	84.5%	72.9%	94.3%	65.7%	60.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	84.5%	72.9%	94.3%	65.7%	60.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	61.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	60.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	73%	58.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	58.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	60%	57.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	57.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	56.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261018-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 57°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗