— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
72¢
aifs
64¢
ndfd
56¢
icon
46¢
rrfs
43¢
nbm
32¢
hres
31¢
eps
27¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
50–51°F1¢
52–53°F4¢
54–55°F10¢
56–57°F19¢
58–59°F24¢
60–61°F21¢
62–63°F13¢
64–65°F6¢
66–67°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,203 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.906 vs climatology 8.873.
Receipts
prop id WP-KLGA-20261018-TMAX-GE59 · opened 2026-10-14T03:45:23+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape