KLGA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

64%

46%

31%

27%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 49.3¢Risks 49.30u

EPSNO 50.7¢Risks 50.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +50.70u · EPS −50.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:45:23+00:00	33.6%	49.2%	70.3%	47.2%	87.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:42+00:00	33.6%	49.2%	70.3%	47.2%	87.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00	33.6%	49.2%	70.3%	47.2%	87.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:56+00:00	33.6%	49.2%	70.3%	47.2%	87.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:03+00:00	33.6%	49.2%	70.3%	47.2%	87.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	35.6%	49.2%	70.3%	47.2%	72.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:32+00:00	35.6%	49.2%	70.3%	47.2%	72.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	35.6%	49.2%	70.3%	47.2%	72.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:00	35.6%	49.2%	70.3%	47.2%	72.6%
2026-10-14T10:32:00+00:00	35.6%	49.2%	70.3%	22.4%	72.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:29+00:00	35.6%	26.4%	75.8%	22.4%	72.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:00	35.6%	26.4%	75.8%	22.4%	72.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:00	35.6%	26.4%	75.8%	22.4%	72.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	40.6%	26.4%	75.8%	22.4%	72.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	40.6%	26.4%	75.8%	22.4%	73.3%
2026-10-16T04:23:47+00:00	58.3%	33.9%	84.3%	33.5%	59.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	58.3%	33.9%	79.7%	33.5%	59.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:36+00:00	58.3%	33.9%	79.7%	33.5%	59.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	58.3%	33.9%	79.7%	33.5%	59.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	58.3%	33.9%	79.7%	33.5%	59.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:20+00:00	56.8%	33.9%	79.7%	33.5%	45.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	56.8%	33.9%	79.7%	33.5%	45.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:39+00:00	56.8%	33.9%	79.7%	33.5%	45.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:45+00:00	56.8%	33.9%	79.7%	33.5%	45.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:01+00:00	56.8%	26.6%	71.9%	33.5%	45.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	56.8%	26.6%	71.9%	33.5%	45.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:44+00:00	56.8%	26.6%	71.9%	33.5%	45.5%
2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00	56.8%	26.6%	71.9%	33.5%	45.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:37+00:00	64.4%	26.7%	71.9%	31.3%	45.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	72%	60.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	60.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	59.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
ICON	46%	58.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	57.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	56.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	27%	56.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗